Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?

2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 20, 2020|

By Gita Gopinath

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In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. […]

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

2019-03-13T10:57:28-04:00December 4, 2018|

By Jiaqian Chen

December 4, 2018

عربي, 中文Español, Français日本語,  PortuguêsРусский

A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom)

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions. […]

A Planet at Risk Requires Multilateral Action

2020-01-08T16:58:39-05:00December 3, 2018|

by Signe Krogstrup and Maurice Obstfeld

 December 3, 2018

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A wolf in the snow: the planet isn’t crying wolf as man’s economic activities reach a scale where the global climate is at risk (photo: ImageBroker/ David MichaSheldon/Newscom)

The COP-21 Paris Agreement limiting greenhouse gas emissions was a major achievement on the road to meeting the threat of climate change. But as the evidence becomes increasingly unambiguous that human activity is destabilizing the Earth’s climate and biosphere, policymakers will need to do more. […]

The Long-Term Impact of Brexit on the European Union

2019-03-13T15:25:22-04:00August 10, 2018|

By Jiaqian Chen, Christian Ebeke, Li Lin, Haonan Qu, and Jesse Siminitz

August 10, 2018

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A container ship entering the Port of Marseille, France: The UK is among the European Union’s largest trading partners, accounting for about 13 percent of its trade in goods and services (photo: Gerard Bottino/Newscom)

When the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, higher barriers to trade, capital flows, and labor mobility will affect output and jobs not only in the UK but also in the remaining 27 EU member states. […]

Creating a Better Global Trade System

2019-03-14T11:44:23-04:00May 29, 2018|

By Christine Lagarde

May 29, 2018

Versions in عربي, 中文FrançaisBaˈhasa indoneˈsia, 日本語, PortuguêsРусский    

Engineers inspect the 3D printing of a bicycle frame in California: trade in services has risen dramatically and the use of technology is changing how countries trade with each other (photo: Stephen Lam/Reuters /Newscom).

Recent news on global trade has tended to focus on protectionist measures and diplomatic tensions. These challenges have raised concerns over growth and jobs across the world. […]

Tariffs Do More Harm Than Good at Home

2019-03-26T16:02:01-04:00September 8, 2016|

maurice-obstfeld2By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語(Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)

A longstanding challenge for the global economy is the possibility that some countries compete for export markets through artificially low prices. Political leaders and pundits sometimes propose import tariffs to offset the supposed price advantages and exert pressure for policy changes abroad. What proponents often fail to realize is that such tariff policies, while certainly hurting their targets, can also be very costly at home. And surprisingly, the self-inflicted harm can be substantial even when trade partners do not retaliate with tariffs of their own. […]

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