Maintaining the Positive Momentum of the Global Economy

Lagarde.2015MDPORTRAIT4_114x128By Christine Lagarde

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),  Deutsch (German), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Baden-Baden, the German spa town built on ancient thermal springs, is a fitting venue to discuss the health of the global economy during this week’s meeting of the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.

Policymakers will likely share a sense of growing optimism, because the recent strengthening of activity suggests that the world economy may finally snap out of its multi-year convalescence.  Continue reading “Maintaining the Positive Momentum of the Global Economy” »

By | March 14th, 2017|Advanced Economies, G-20, growth, IMF, Investment, jobs, U.S., Uncategorized|0 Comments

Revisiting the Paradox of Capital: The Reversal of Uphill Flows

By Emine Boz, Luis Cubeddu, and Maurice Obstfeld

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Basic economic theory tells us that capital should flow from slow-growing rich countries to faster-growing poor ones in search of higher returns. A decade ago, our former Research Department colleagues Eswar Prasad, Raghuram Rajan, and Arvind Subramanian examined why the reverse had been true—capital generally flowed “uphill” from poorer to richer countries. Building on the seminal work of Robert Lucas, they argued that certain characteristics of poorer countries, such as weaker institutions and lower levels of education, may reduce the risk-adjusted returns to investing there.  Continue reading “Revisiting the Paradox of Capital: The Reversal of Uphill Flows” »

Chart of the Week: More Women, More Growth

By iMFdirect

International Women’s Day and the United States’ February jobs report are both coming up this week. So, we decided today’s chart should focus on women and work.

Around the world, women seeking employment face barriers—from legal hurdles to disincentives like lower wages. Leveling the playing field could bring significant benefits.  Continue reading “Chart of the Week: More Women, More Growth” »

By | March 6th, 2017|Gender issues, health, IMF, income, U.S., wages|0 Comments

A Shifting Global Economic Landscape: Update to the World Economic Outlook

maury-obstfeld-blogsize-final2By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.

An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen.  Continue reading “A Shifting Global Economic Landscape: Update to the World Economic Outlook” »

What the Fed Rate Rise Means for Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets

By Adrian Alter and Selim Elekdag

Versions in عربي (Arabic), and Español (Spanish)

In December 2016, the U.S. Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year, and said they planned more increases in 2017.  Emerging market currencies took a bit of a dive, but overall investors didn’t overreact and run for the doors with their money.  For the bigger picture, you can read IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld’s blog that outlines how the U.S. election and Fed decision will impact the global economy.  Continue reading “What the Fed Rate Rise Means for Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets” »

A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks

maury-obstfeld-imfBy Maurice Obstfeld

Version inعربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

After a year marked by financial turbulence, political surprises, and unsteady growth in many parts of the world, the Fed’s decision this month to raise interest rates for just the second time in a decade is a healthy symptom that the recovery of the world’s largest economy is on track.

The Fed’s action was hardly a surprise: markets had for weeks placed a high probability on last week’s move. But market developments preceding the Fed decision did surprise many market watchers. Continue reading “A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks” »

Infrastructure Done Right

By iMFdirect

In the face of crumbling bridges and super-low interest rates, many countries are talking and planning to increase spending on infrastructure. And it’s not just about more spending; it’s about smart spending. This is something that the IMF has urged countries to consider for several years, starting with our Fall 2014 World Economic OutlookContinue reading “Infrastructure Done Right” »

By | December 13th, 2016|growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, productivity, U.S.|0 Comments

The Evidence that Growth Creates Jobs: A New Look at an Old Relationship

By iMFdirect

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The link between jobs and economic growth is not always a straight line for countries, but that doesn’t mean it’s broken.

Economists track the relationship between jobs and growth using Okun’s Law, which says that higher growth leads to lower unemployment.

New research from the IMF looks at Okun’s Law and asks, based on the evidence, will growth create jobs? The findings show a striking variation across countries in how employment responds to GDP growth over the course of a year. Continue reading “The Evidence that Growth Creates Jobs: A New Look at an Old Relationship” »

A Sea Change: The New Migration from sub-Saharan Africa

By Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and Montfort Mlachila

Versions in Français (French), and Português (Portuguese)

Migration of sub-Saharan Africans is growing rapidly. Just like the region’s population, the number of migrants doubled since 1990 to reach about 20 million in 2013. In the coming decades, migration will expand given the demographic boom in the working-age population—the group that typically feeds migration. We studied these trends in a recent paper because both receiving and sending countries need the right policies so all can benefit.

Continue reading “A Sea Change: The New Migration from sub-Saharan Africa” »

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