CHART OF THE WEEKThe Unequal COVID Saving and Wealth Surge
By Cian Allen and Cyril Rebillard
Household saving increased sharply during the COVID-19 crisis in many countries. […]
Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year
Soaring natural gas prices are rippling through global energy markets—and other economic sectors from factories to utilities.
Drawing Further Apart: Widening Gaps in the Global Recovery
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The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging market and developing economies. Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed. […]
Understanding the Rise in Long-Term Rates
By Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel, Sheheryar Malik, Fabio Natalucci
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. […]
An Asynchronous and Divergent Recovery May Put Financial Stability at Risk
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
After enduring a tumultuous 2020, the global economy is finally emerging from the worst phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with prospects diverging starkly across regions and countries—and only after a “lost year” spent in suspended animation. […]
A New Vision for the US Climate Agenda
By Ian Parry
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Over the next decade, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 25– 50 percent to be on track for meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of containing global warming to 1.5–2°C.The United States intends to do its part. Its climate plan pledges US carbon neutrality by 2050, with a 2030 emissions target to be announced shortly.
Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the unpredictable, winding road that it can lead the world down. […]
What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You
By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri
عربي, Español, 中文, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.
Uncertainty in systemic economies matters for uncertainty around the world.
What drives global uncertainty?
Economic growth in key systemic economies, like those of the United States and European Union, is a key driver of economic activity in the rest of the world. Is this also true when it comes to global uncertainty? For example, given the higher interconnectedness across countries, should we expect that uncertainty from the U.S. election, Brexit, or China-U.S. trade tensions spill over and affect uncertainty in other countries?
To answer this question, we construct an index that measures the extent of “uncertainty spillovers” from key systemic economies—the Group of 7 […]
A Greener Future Begins with a Shift to Coal Alternatives
By Christian Bogmans and Claire Mengyi Li
中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
As the world economy emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, the consumption of coal is expected to recover from its sharp decline during the pandemic. […]