Latin America’s Strong Recovery is Losing Momentum, Underscoring Reform Needs
Governments will need to combine fighting inflation with structural policies that reignite growth.
Low Real Interest Rates Support Asset Prices, But Risks Are Rising
A large and sudden jump in real interest rates could lead to a further selloff in stocks.
CHART OF THE WEEKThe Unequal COVID Saving and Wealth Surge
By Cian Allen and Cyril Rebillard
Household saving increased sharply during the COVID-19 crisis in many countries. […]
Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year
Soaring natural gas prices are rippling through global energy markets—and other economic sectors from factories to utilities.
Drawing Further Apart: Widening Gaps in the Global Recovery
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The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging market and developing economies. Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed. […]
Understanding the Rise in Long-Term Rates
By Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel, Sheheryar Malik, Fabio Natalucci
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The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. […]
An Asynchronous and Divergent Recovery May Put Financial Stability at Risk
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After enduring a tumultuous 2020, the global economy is finally emerging from the worst phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with prospects diverging starkly across regions and countries—and only after a “lost year” spent in suspended animation. […]
A New Vision for the US Climate Agenda
By Ian Parry
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Over the next decade, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 25– 50 percent to be on track for meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of containing global warming to 1.5–2°C.The United States intends to do its part. Its climate plan pledges US carbon neutrality by 2050, with a 2030 emissions target to be announced shortly.
Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the unpredictable, winding road that it can lead the world down. […]