The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging market and developing economies. Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed. […]
The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. […]
After enduring a tumultuous 2020, the global economy is finally emerging from the worst phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with prospects diverging starkly across regions and countries—and only after a “lost year” spent in suspended animation. […]
By Ian Parry
Over the next decade, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 25– 50 percent to be on track for meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of containing global warming to 1.5–2°C.The United States intends to do its part. Its climate plan pledges US carbon neutrality by 2050, with a 2030 emissions target to be announced shortly.
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.
Uncertainty in systemic economies matters for uncertainty around the world.
What drives global uncertainty?
Economic growth in key systemic economies, like those of the United States and European Union, is a key driver of economic activity in the rest of the world. Is this also true when it comes to global uncertainty? For example, given the higher interconnectedness across countries, should we expect that uncertainty from the U.S. election, Brexit, or China-U.S. trade tensions spill over and affect uncertainty in other countries?
To answer this question, we construct an index that measures the extent of “uncertainty spillovers” from key systemic economies—the Group of 7 […]