The Short-term Liquidity Line: A New IMF Tool to Help in the Crisis

2020-04-23T16:39:25-04:00April 22, 2020|

By Geoffrey Okamoto

عربي,  中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский

Challenging times for emerging markets

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely disrupted the global economy at every level. Across the world, financial conditions have tightened dramatically, with unprecedented portfolio outflows from emerging markets in terms of both size (a record of about $100 billion) and speed, and markets effectively frozen in some cases. […]

Fed Tightening May Squeeze Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

2019-03-15T13:09:37-04:00December 14, 2017|

By Robin Koepke

December 14, 2017

Versions in  中文 (Chinese),  Español (Spanish),  Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian)

Derivatives traders in Singapore: Tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy is likely to reduce overseas purchases of emerging market stocks and bonds (photo: Caro/Rupert Oberhaeuser/Newscom)

A key question facing global investors today is what impact the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalization process will have on capital flows to emerging […]

Sovereign Wealth Funds in the New Era of Oil

2019-03-27T14:37:31-04:00October 26, 2015|

By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad 

(Versions in عربي and 中文)

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers.

In the short run, this phenomenon is not cause for alarm. Most oil exporters have enough buffers to withstand a temporary drop in oil prices. But what will happen if low […]

To Hike or Not to Hike? Monetary Policy in Latin America During Fed Liftoff

2019-03-27T14:40:00-04:00October 21, 2015|

By Carlos Caceres, Yan Carrière-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss

(Versions in Español and Português)

As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to raise policy rates for the first time in almost a decade, Latin America is in the midst of a sharp downturn with unemployment on the rise. In this context, many central banks across the region have kept interest rates low to support economic activity. But can monetary policy stay that way as global rates rise? What will the Fed liftoff imply for the region?

[…]

Global Financial Stability: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges

2019-03-27T14:52:51-04:00October 7, 2015|

GFSRBy José Viñals

(Versions in 中文FrançaisРусский, and Español)

Today global financial stability is not yet assured and downside risks prevail. Our recommendation is for an urgent upgrade in policies, to avoid downside risks and to achieve our upside scenario of “successful normalization” of monetary and financial conditions. This will secure financial stability and strengthen the economic recovery.

[…]

Multi-Track Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies: What This Means for Asia

2019-03-27T17:42:49-04:00April 27, 2015|

By James Daniel and Rachel van Elkan

Since mid-2014, diversity and divergence—applying to countries’ economic situations, policies and performance—have dominated global economic discussions. Differing economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies.

Both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have started significant expansions of their balance sheets, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has ended its bond-buying program and is expected to start raising rates. This has had many effects, in particular, contributing to a sharp depreciation of the Yen and the Euro against the U.S. dollar (see […]

Warning—Falling (U.S. Treasury) Objects

2017-04-14T01:48:07-04:00February 12, 2015|

By Nigel Chalk and Jarkko Turunen

WHD.US Falling Yields.warningsignThe remarkable collapse in the price of oil—a key global price that has virtually halved in the space of just a few months—has received a lot of attention lately.

Meanwhile, another significant shift has taken place in recent months that is just as surprising and has wide-reaching global implications—the dramatic drop in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields. The last time we saw 10-year Treasury bond yields this low […]

Portfolio Investment in Emerging Markets: More Than Just Ebb and Flow

2014-11-07T17:11:49-05:00November 7, 2014|

Evan PapageorgioBy Evan Papageorgiou

When the U.S. Federal Reserve first mentioned in 2013 the prospect of a cutback in its bond buying program, markets had a “taper tantrum.” Many emerging markets saw large increases in volatility, even though outflows from their domestic markets were small and short-lived. Now the Fed has ended its bond buying and is looking ahead to rate hikes, and portfolio flows continue to arrive at the shores of emerging market economies. So everything’s fine, right? Not quite.

In our latest […]

Go to Top