5 Charts That Explain the Global Economy in 2018

2019-03-04T14:59:50-05:00December 20, 2018|

By Oya Celasun, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Maurice Obstfeld

December 20, 2018

عربي中文, EspañolFrançais, 日本語, Português, Русский

The global economy started 2018 on a positive note but the momentum lost steam (photo: scyther5/iStock)

  1. The global economy started 2018 on an upbeat note, buoyed by a pickup in global manufacturing and trade through 2017. […]

Global Economy: Good News for Now but Trade Tensions a Threat

2019-03-14T12:25:32-04:00April 17, 2018|

By Maurice Obstfeld

April 17, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  baˈhasa indoneˈsia (Indonesian), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Container ship in Colombo, Sri Lanka: the recent escalating tensions over trade present a growing risk to the global economy (photo: STRINGER/REUTERS/Newscom).

The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of a similarly broad-based conflict over trade presents a jarring picture.

Three months ago, we […]

Understanding the Global Financial Cycle

2019-03-15T13:43:04-04:00October 27, 2017|

By Maurice Obstfeld and Mahvash S. Qureshi

October 27, 2017

The boom and bust in cross-border capital flows around the global financial crisis, and in its aftermath, have rekindled debates on the existence and implications of a “global financial cycle.”

The traditional open-economy (“Mundell-Fleming”) model postulates that countries face a “trilemma”: a trade-off among the objectives of exchange rate stability, free capital mobility, and independent monetary policy. […]

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