Understanding Spillovers

2017-04-14T01:51:38-04:00November 12, 2014|

By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven and Esteban Vesperoni

The global crisis—which challenged paradigms about the functioning of financial markets and had significant consequences in other markets—and the sluggish recovery since 2009, are a reminder of the importance of understanding interconnections and risks in the global economy. The increasing trend in global trade, and even more significant, in cross-border financial activities, suggests that spillovers can take many different forms.

The understanding of transmission channels of spillovers has become essential, not only from an academic perspective, but also policymaking. The challenges faced by policy coordination after the initial response to the crisis in 2009—illustrated by the debate on the impact of unconventional monetary policy in emerging economies—raise wide ranging issues on fiscal, monetary, and financial policies.

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The Solution Is More, Not Less Europe

2017-04-15T14:21:22-04:00July 19, 2011|

It is hard to hold the course in the middle of a storm, but European policymakers need to if they want European integration to succeed. The sovereign debt crisis is a serious challenge, which requires a strong and coordinated effort by all involved to finally put it behind us.

“Combination of Worries” Gets Attention in Davos

2017-04-15T14:28:33-04:00January 28, 2011|

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, fiscal challenges in advanced economies, concerns about overheating in emerging market countries, and the impact of rising food prices. These are the hot topics at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and a clear sign of the tensions and risks as the global economy recovers. In an interview from Davos, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky tells us that, with the return of global growth, the mood is certainly more optimistic than it was a year or two ago. But there is also a clear sense among delegates that this has not solved some of the world’s important economic problems.

End the Credit Rating Addiction

2017-04-15T14:33:42-04:00September 30, 2010|

One of the earliest take aways from the global financial crisis was the importance of access to information for effectively functioning financial markets. And, in that regard, credit ratings can serve an incredibly useful role in global and domestic financial markets. But, in practice, credit ratings have inadvertently contributed to financial instability. To be fair, the problem does not lie entirely with the ratings themselves, but with overreliance on ratings by both borrowers and creditors. In one of the background papers for the Fall 2010 Global Financial Stability Report that John Kiff prepared with IMF colleagues, they recommend that regulators should reduce their reliance on credit ratings. Markets need to end their addiction to credit ratings.
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