2011 In Review: Four Hard Truths

As 2011 draws to a close, the recovery in many advanced economies is at a standstill, with some investors even exploring the implications of a potential breakup of the euro zone, and the real possibility that conditions may be worse than we saw in 2008. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's Chief Economist, draws four main lessons in his year in review.

More Diversity will Help the IMF at Work

Nemat Shafik, who took over as IMF Deputy Managing Director in April, says she has been surprised by the vigor of internal policy debate at the IMF. “From the outside looking in, you have the impression that the IMF is a monolith with a very single-minded view of the world. When you are inside the Fund, what is really striking is how active the internal debate is,” she says. At a time when the global economy is being buffeted by continued uncertainty in Europe, uprisings in the Middle East, and signs of overheating in some emerging market economies, there’s a lot to discuss. And, it addition to global economic problems, the IMF’s work environment has come under increased scrutiny, in particular how women are treated and its professional code of conduct. In an interview, Ms. Shafik discusses some of these issues.

Confessions of a Dismal Scientist—Africa’s Resilience

Like many economists, I tend to fear the worst. I have witnessed phenomenal changes for the better in sub-Saharan Africa over the past 20 odd years. Part of me still worries that this trajectory will not endure. But, the more I see of the region’s economic performance and outlook, the more I’m changing my tune. Good macroeconomic policies in many more countries the years before the crisis put them in good stead to weather the crisis relatively well. As we report in our latest Regional Economic Outlook, output in sub-Saharan Africa looks set to expand by around 5½ this year and 6 percent in 2012. My latest worry is the recent sharp increase in food and fuel prices on world markets. To help minimize the dislocation that this shock may entail, countries should consider a two-pronged policy response.

Toughing It Out: How the Baltics Defied Predictions

The three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—were among the first victims of the global financial crisis. Although adjustment is still far from complete, a recovery is now underway. It is still too early to judge the success of the Baltic strategy, but it's fair to say that the most dire predictions have not come true.

By | January 7th, 2011|Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal Stimulus|11 Comments

World Faces Serious New Economic Challenges

We find ourselves at an important new stage of the crisis. A global depression has been averted. The world economy is recovering, and recovering better than we had previously thought likely. This is certainly welcome news. But new---and no less formidable—challenges have presented themselves.

Unwinding Crisis Policies in Europe: Are We There Yet?

To successfully unwind the extraordinary policy measures taken in response to the crisis, we need more than just a good sense of the state of the economic recovery and the degree of financial stability. We also need to know to what extent the global economy currently is influenced by those supportive policy measures. Marek Belka, Director of the IMF's European Department and a former Prime Minister of Poland, discusses whether or not it is safe yet to change tack.

The Puzzle of Asia’s Rapid Rebound

Now here’s the puzzle: how is it that Asia has rebounded sooner and more strongly than the rest of the globe from the economic slump when the region is so heavily dependent on exports for its growth? This, and the future prospects for the region, are two of the key issues we analyzed in the latest Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific, recently launched in Seoul and Tokyo.

By | November 2nd, 2009|Asia, Economic Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth|4 Comments

The Commodity Connection: Rising Commodity Prices and the Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean

As the world economy emerges from recession, it’s worth thinking about how the composition of this recovery, in terms of which countries expand faster, will affect commodity prices—and how those prices influence the outlook for economies of the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region.

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