End of the Oil Age: Not Whether But When

By Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aasim M. Husain

September 12, 2017

Versions in ربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French),  日本語  (Japanese), Русский (Russian)

Filling up at a gas station in California: demand for oil could plummet with the rise of renewable energy (Xinhua/Newscom)

A transportation revolution is underway that could completely transform the oil market in the coming decades. Continue reading “End of the Oil Age: Not Whether But When” »

Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation

By IMFBlog

July 31, 2017 

An electric car recharges at a meter in London: The UK is the latest country to announce plans to end fossil fuel vehicle sales by 2040 (photo: Sasha Fox Walters/iStock by Getty Images)

The switch from horses to automobiles in the 20th century paved the way for the rise of oil-based transportation and energy use. Today, electric vehicle ownership is picking up speed. Greater affordability of electric vehicles will likely steer us away from our current sources of energy for transportation, and toward more environmentally friendly technology. And that can happen sooner than you think.

Our Chart of the Week from a recent IMF working paper shows that the transition away from motor vehicles could happen in the next 10 to 25 years, based on parallel shifts in the 20th century. Patterns observed in the early days of the horse-car transition closely resemble present-day electric vehicle adoption rates. Between 2011 and 2015, the average annual growth rate of electric vehicle ownership was 120 percent. This is, in fact, slightly faster growth than that of motor vehicles during a comparable timeframe in the past. Using the horse-car parallel, the paper forecasts that by 2040 motor vehicles could mostly disappear in advanced economies, and could comprise about a third of the fleet of all cars in emerging market and developing economies. Continue reading “Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation” »

OPEC’s Rebalancing Act

By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

In November 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to maintain output despite a perceived global glut of oil. The result was a steep decline in price.

Two years later, on November 30, 2016, the organization took a different tack and committed to a six-month, 1.2 million barrel a day (3.5 percent) reduction in OPEC crude oil output to 32.5 million barrels per day, effective in January 2017. The result was a small price increase and some price stability. Continue reading “OPEC’s Rebalancing Act” »

By | March 15th, 2017|Economic research, IMF, Investment, trade, Uncategorized|

Taxing Oil, Gas and Minerals Across Borders Poses Challenges for Developing Nations

By Philip Daniel, Michael Keen, Artur Swistak, and Victor Thuronyi

Versions in Français (French), Português (Portuguese), and Español (Spanish)

Seventy percent of the world’s poorest people live in countries rich in oil, natural gas or minerals, making effective taxation of these extractive industries critical to alleviating poverty and achieving sustained growth. But national borders make that task much harder, opening possibilities for tax avoidance by multinationals and raising tough jurisdictional issues when resource deposits cross frontiers. Continue reading “Taxing Oil, Gas and Minerals Across Borders Poses Challenges for Developing Nations” »

By | February 9th, 2017|Economic research, Fiscal policy, growth, International Monetary Fund|

Commodity Commotion

By iMFdirect

Terms of trade is the price of a country’s exports relative to its imports. The commodity terms of trade refers to a country’s commodity exports relative to its commodity imports.

When the price of commodities, like oil, plummeted in 2015, economies that rely on exporting commodities had their terms of trade drop by an average of about 10 percent of GDP that year. Economies that rely more on importing commodities saw about a 2 percent of GDP benefit from the 2015 drop in prices.  Continue reading “Commodity Commotion” »

By | December 21st, 2016|commodities, Economic research, IMF, International Monetary Fund, U.S.|

A "New Normal" for the Oil Market

By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.

Continue reading “A "New Normal" for the Oil Market” »

Oil Exporters Learn to Live with Cheaper Oil

By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey

Version in  عربي (Arabic)

The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.

Continue reading “Oil Exporters Learn to Live with Cheaper Oil” »

By | June 8th, 2016|growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, trade, Uncategorized|

Oil Low-Commotion

By iMFdirect

Brent crude oil fell below $30 a barrel yesterday for the first time since 2004, which reminds us that commodity prices are a hot topic that impact everyone, everywhere, one way or another.

So we thought you might like to read a few of our recent blogs about what the !@#$% is going on, and why it matters for the global economy. Continue reading “Oil Low-Commotion” »

Climate Change: How To Price Paris

by Vitor Gaspar, Michael Keen, and Ian Parry

(Versions in عربي中文Español, and Français)

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change is a historic diplomatic achievement. Climate change is a global problem. Many believed that global problem solving would prove elusive: the benefits of cutting emissions arise globally while the costs of doing so are borne nationally, so national self-interest would prevent a meaningful agreement. Paris proves otherwise—creating a commonality of purpose at the global level.  Continue reading “Climate Change: How To Price Paris” »

The Top Ten Blogs of 2015

by iMFdirect

2015 was a bold year for blogs at the IMF.  Boldness grows less common in the higher ranks, according to Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, but he couldn't be more wrong when it comes to these blogs: the list includes work by the IMF's former chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fiscal Affairs Department.

Continue reading “The Top Ten Blogs of 2015” »

By | December 30th, 2015|International Monetary Fund|
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