oil prices – IMF Blog

OPEC’s Rebalancing Act

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

In November 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to maintain output despite a perceived global glut of oil. The result was a steep decline in price.

Two years later, on November 30, 2016, the organization took a different tack and committed to a six-month, 1.2 million barrel a day (3.5 percent) reduction in OPEC crude oil output to 32.5 million barrels per day, effective in January 2017. The result was a small price increase and some price stability. (more…)

By IMFBlog| March 15th, 2017|Economic research, IMF, Investment, trade, Uncategorized|0 Comments

A "New Normal" for the Oil Market

By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.

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By IMFBlog| October 27th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund|0 Comments

Oil Exporters Learn to Live with Cheaper Oil

By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey

Version in عربي (Arabic)

The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.

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By IMFBlog| June 8th, 2016|growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, trade, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: It’s Complicated

By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),
日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)

Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment.

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By IMFBlog| March 24th, 2016|Employment, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, U.S.|0 Comments

Population Pressures

By Jeff Hayden

(Versions in عربي and Español)

Say “population growth” and many people immediately think of resources under stress. The mind jumps to 19th century scholar Thomas Malthus, who saw population outstripping the food supply, or to Paul Ehrlich, whose 1968 book The Population Bomb warned of global catastrophe from overpopulation.

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By IMFBlog| February 25th, 2016|Africa, China, Employment, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund|0 Comments

Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016: Adjusting to a Harsher Reality

Alejandro Werner

By Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.

The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). (more…)

By IMFBlog| January 22nd, 2016|Economic outlook, growth, IMF|0 Comments

Oil Low-Commotion

By iMFdirect

Brent crude oil fell below $30 a barrel yesterday for the first time since 2004, which reminds us that commodity prices are a hot topic that impact everyone, everywhere, one way or another.

So we thought you might like to read a few of our recent blogs about what the !@#$% is going on, and why it matters for the global economy. (more…)

By IMFBlog| January 14th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, China, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East|0 Comments

The Top Ten Blogs of 2015

by iMFdirect

2015 was a bold year for blogs at the IMF. Boldness grows less common in the higher ranks, according to Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, but he couldn't be more wrong when it comes to these blogs: the list includes work by the IMF's former chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fiscal Affairs Department.

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By IMFBlog| December 30th, 2015|International Monetary Fund|0 Comments

Sovereign Wealth Funds in the New Era of Oil

By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad

(Versions in عربي and 中文)

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers.

In the short run, this phenomenon is not cause for alarm. Most oil exporters have enough buffers to withstand a temporary drop in oil prices. But what will happen if low oil prices persist, and how will policymakers react?

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By IMFBlog| October 26th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment|0 Comments

Plato & the Incas: Overheard at the IMF’s Annual Meetings

By iMFdirect

According to Plato, you do not really know something unless you can give an account of it. Otherwise, you have just an opinion and not real knowledge. The seminars that took place during the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru would have made Plato proud.

Our editors deployed their pens and notepads and brought back these themes and highlights.

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By IMFBlog| October 15th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America|0 Comments

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