By John Lipsky
Every year at this time, senior Federal Reserve officials and central bank heads from around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming—together with leading economists from universities and the private sector—to hear presentations on key policy topics and to discuss the challenges facing the global economy. The spectacularly beautiful setting at the foot of the Grand Teton mountains provides calm and perspective.
Last year’s gathering took place on the eve of historic financial turmoil and subsequent economic downturn. One year later, it is clear that progress is being made to overcome the crisis, but also that many fundamental changes will flow from the past year’s challenges, even though the exact nature and course of these changes remain far from certain. The mountains’ grandeur remains unaltered, of course, providing inspiration while insinuating an appropriate sense of humility.
The story of the past year is well known: Faced with the very real possibility of a global financial meltdown, and the reality of the sharpest global economic downturn of the post-World War II period, policymakers around the world responded with a series of unprecedented actions—including massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, plus new governance initiatives. One year later, the signs are clear—if still tentative—of renewed growth, although opinions are divided regarding how effective specific policy actions have been, or about how soon the global economy will regain the pre-crisis level of output, or reestablish pre-crisis trend growth rates.