Labor Market | IMF Blog

Higher Policy Uncertainty Could Be Bad News for Japan’s Economy

by Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, and Arata Ito

May 30, 2017

Version in 中文 (Chinese), 日本語 (Japanese)

Policy uncertainty remains a challenge in Japan, and can harm the country’s economic performance according to a new IMF study. The good news is that credible plans for taxation, spending and structural reforms, as well as greater clarity about monetary policy can reduce uncertainty. Continue reading “Higher Policy Uncertainty Could Be Bad News for Japan’s Economy” »

By IMFBlog| May 30th, 2017|Advanced Economies, aging, Asia, banking, Employment, exports, Financial markets, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, imports, income, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Japan, jobs, labor force, labor markets, productivity, taxation, trade, Uncategorized, unemployment, wages|0 Comments

Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now

By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.

Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.

Continue reading “Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now” »

By IMFBlog| April 18th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital markets, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, inclusive growth, income, Inequality, labor markets, Low-income countries, Politics, productivity, Uncategorized|0 Comments

How Lowering Trade Barriers Can Revive Global Productivity and Growth

By Era Dabla-Norris and Romain Duval

Version in Español (Spanish)

Weak productivity growth in many advanced and emerging market economies in the wake of the global financial crisis is raising concerns about future growth prospects. New research indicates that easing barriers to international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) could boost productivity and output.

Continue reading “How Lowering Trade Barriers Can Revive Global Productivity and Growth” »

By IMFBlog| June 20th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, labor markets, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Unemployment: Troubles Ahead for Emerging Markets

By Prakash Loungani and Zidong An

Version in Español (Spanish)

Forecasts of real GDP growth attract a lot of media attention. But what matters more to the person on the street is how growth translates into jobs. Unfortunately, the mediocre growth outlook of recent years may lead to a disturbing outlook for jobs, particularly among fuel-exporting countries and in the Latin America and Caribbean region.

Continue reading “Unemployment: Troubles Ahead for Emerging Markets” »

By IMFBlog| May 3rd, 2016|Advanced Economies, developing countries, Emerging Markets, euro zone, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, U.S.|0 Comments

With China Slowing, Faster Reforms Critical to Generate Jobs

By W. Raphael Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Alfred Schipke

(Version in 中国)

China is moving toward a “new normal” of safer and more sustainable growth. To this end, ensuring its labor market stays resilient will be critical. Reforms to contain vulnerabilities caused by buildup of credits may temporarily slow growth, and raise the unemployment rate, but supported through a strong safety net, these reforms will raise productivity, and facilitate more sustainable growth.

Despite the slowdown of the past few years, however, China’s labor market has remained resilient. Efforts to maintain labor market stability are paying off, helped by an expanding services sector.

Continue reading “With China Slowing, Faster Reforms Critical to Generate Jobs” »

By IMFBlog| September 16th, 2015|Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, IMF|0 Comments

Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

By Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake

(Version in 日本語)

Take a walk in Tokyo, and you will see the sign スタッフ募集中, or “Staff Wanted”, outside many restaurants and convenience stores. These businesses often find it impossible to recruit the workers they need. According to recent statistics, for each job seeker in Japan applying to work as a waiter, there are more than three available positions. Home helpers and long-term caregivers are equally in demand. If you want to work as a security guard, you can choose from around five openings, and for some positions in the construction business the job-to-applicant ratio is over six.

Japan’s labor shortages are the result of both a shrinking population—which limits the overall pool of workers—and skill mismatches. The reduced supply of labor is one of the factors bringing down medium-term potential growth, which the International Monetary Fund estimates at just 0.6 percent. Labor market shortages are also bad for short-term growth, because they reduce the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that the authorities are using to try to boost demand.

Continue reading “Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages” »

By IMFBlog| August 24th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, unemployment|0 Comments

Growth’s Secret Weapon: The Poor and the Middle Class

By Era Dabla-Norris, Kalpana Kochhar, and Evridiki Tsounta

(Versions in Español, 中文 , 日本語, عربي,and Русский)

The gap between the rich and the poor is at its widest in decades in advanced countries, and inequality is also rising in major emerging markets (Chart 1). It is becoming increasingly clear that these developments have profound economic implications.

Continue reading “Growth’s Secret Weapon: The Poor and the Middle Class” »

By IMFBlog| June 15th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Middle East, Reform|0 Comments

Can Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost Decades

By Changyong Rhee

(Versions in 日本語)

Abenomics can succeed, despite recent setbacks to growth and inflation, in revitalizing Japan by making steadfast progress on all three of its arrows equally and simultaneously, as we show in our new book. This is also essential to avoid an undue weakening of the yen and ensure positive spillovers to Japan’s neighbors, its region, and the global economy.

The Legacy: Structural Changes During the Lost Decades

Most Japan followers will be familiar with the following striking statistic: in 2013, Japan’s level of nominal GDP was about 6 percent below its mid 1990s level. During this period, three important structural changes have been a brake on growth and efforts to get out of deflation: Continue reading “Can Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost Decades” »

By IMFBlog| April 1st, 2015|Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Fiscal Policy And Structural Reform

By Vitor Gaspar

One of the big questions to emerge from the global financial crisis, especially in the euro area, is how to raise a country’s potential growth while restoring healthy public finances. For example, the euro area— despite some favorable news recently — faces marked-down growth prospects alongside high levels of public debt. The combination of high debt and tepid potential growth underscores the importance of improving prospects for sustained growth and safe and resilient public finances. A fundamental question then arises: what is the relation between fiscal consolidation and structural reform?

Continue reading “Fiscal Policy And Structural Reform” »

By IMFBlog| March 27th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Down But Not Out

By Jeff Hayden

We drew our inspiration for Finance & Development's cover from Diego Rivera’s Detroit Industry murals at the Detroit Institute of Arts. Rivera, a Mexican artist, was commissioned in 1932 to paint the 27-panel visual epic as a tribute to the city’s assembly-line workers, scientists, doctors, secretaries, and laborers, many of whom were struggling at the time to keep their jobs amid the devastation of the Great Depression.

Continue reading “Down But Not Out” »

By IMFBlog| March 2nd, 2015|Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, Uncategorized|0 Comments

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