International Trade

From Windfall to Windmill: Harnessing Asia’s Dynamism for Latin America

By Andre Meier and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos

Latin America’s recent economic fortunes highlight the region’s closer economic ties with Asia. China, in particular, has grown into a crucial source of demand for Latin American commodities over the past two decades, providing significant gains to the region. The flip side is that the ongoing structural slowdown of Chinese investment is weighing considerably on the prices of those commodities, and the countries that export them.

But Asia can be much more than just a source of episodic windfall gains (and losses) for Latin America. Like a windmill, Asia could help to power a stronger Latin American economy—by providing an example of successful regional trade integration and through greater direct links across the Pacific that benefit both sides. However, securing these benefits will require clear and realistic objectives, a long-term strategy, and attention to the political and social implications of greater economic integration.

Continue reading “From Windfall to Windmill: Harnessing Asia’s Dynamism for Latin America” »

By IMFBlog| July 22nd, 2015|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment|

Emerging Markets Need To Do More To Remain Engines of Global Growth

By Min Zhu

(Version in Français, Русский, 日本語, Português, عربي , 中文, and Español)

We had a big debate on emerging markets’ growth prospects at our Annual Meetings in October 2013. We lowered our 2013 growth forecast for emerging markets and developing economies by a whopping 0.5 percentage points compared to our earlier forecast. Some argued that we were too pessimistic. Others said that we should have stuck with the lower-growth scenario we had devised at the onset of the global financial crisis.

Fast forward to today. Indeed, most recent figures indicate that the engines of global growth—emerging markets and developing economies—have slowed significantly. Their growth rate dropped about 3 percentage points in 2013 from 2010 levels, with more than two thirds of countries seeing a decline— Brazil, China, and India lead the pack. This is important for the global economy, since these economies generate half of today’s global economic activity.

In my more recent travels around the world—five regions on three continents—I received the same questions everywhere: what is happening with the emerging markets? Is the slowdown permanent? Can emerging markets boost their growth? What are the downside risks?

Continue reading “Emerging Markets Need To Do More To Remain Engines of Global Growth” »

By IMFBlog| January 22nd, 2014|Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Uncategorized|

Trade Winds—Has the Spectre of Protectionism Blown Away?

The global crisis has pushed trade reforms off—or at least to the edge of—the political radar screen. But shying away from improving the trade system may actually jeopardize growth and jobs, and in these tough economic times that seems a little like cutting off your nose to spite your face. The Fund may not be the main player on the trade ‘block’, but we certainly take an interest given its macroeconomic importance. And, in the spirit of moving forward the discussion, and indeed the policies in support of, trade integration, the Fund has three main lines of work in the pipeline.

By IMFBlog| January 5th, 2012|Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation|

Seven Pillars of Prosperity—Diversifying Economic Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Medium-term economic growth prospects in the Caucasus and Central Asia region are strong. But, to secure ongoing prosperity, the eight countries of the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—will need to look beyond traditional sources of growth. The challenge for policymakers will be to foster new and more diverse growth drivers, outside mining, oil, and gas. There are seven policy pillars that can help them do that, including strengthening economic and financial ties within the region.

By IMFBlog| May 5th, 2011|Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund|

A Marriage Made in Heaven or Hell: Monetary and Financial Stability

Price stability has long been enshrined as the main objective of monetary policy, and, with that, gone are the days of high and volatile inflation. Monetary stability seems almost a given today. However, the global financial crisis revealed that, by focusing on price stability, monetary policy frameworks might not always sound the alarm when financial stability comes under threat. In his latest blog, José Viñals reflects on the monetary policy lessons that emerged from the global financial crisis and the need for a "happy marriage" between the goals of price stability and financial stability.

By IMFBlog| July 20th, 2010|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, IMF, International Monetary Fund|