Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties

2017-04-14T01:54:23-04:00October 7, 2014|

WEOBy Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in Françaisespañol, 中文Русский日本語)

The recovery continues, but it is weak and uneven.

You have now seen the basic numbers from our latest projections in the October 2014 World Economic Outlook released today.  We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast.

This number hides however very different evolutions.  Some countries have recovered or nearly recovered.  But others are still struggling.

Looking around the world, economies are subject to two main forces.  One from the past:  Countries have to deal with the legacies of the financial crisis, ranging from debt overhangs to high unemployment.  One from the future, or more accurately, the anticipated future:   Potential growth rates are being revised down, and these worse prospects are in turn affecting confidence, demand, and growth today.

Because these two forces play in different countries to different degrees, economic evolutions are becoming more differentiated.  With this in mind, let me take you on the […]

Africa’s Growth Puzzle: Better Ways to Fill Infrastructure Gaps

2017-04-15T14:12:51-04:00February 28, 2012|

The issue of reviving or maintaining economic growth is a the forefront of policymakers’ minds all around the world. Of course, the policies needed to achieve that differ from region-to-region, country-to-country. For many countries in Africa, weak infrastructure is an obstacle to raising growth. In a recent interview with the IMF’s Survey online magazine, Andrew Berg of the IMF’s Research Department (and one of our contributing bloggers) discusses how Africa can step up investment in its infrastructure by augmenting traditional sources of financing with foreign borrowing and private investment.

Shared Frustrations: How to Make Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa More Inclusive

2017-04-15T14:16:51-04:00October 19, 2011|

Suddenly it's the thing everyone is talking about. Income inequality. In North Africa and the Middle East, jobless youth sparked the Arab Spring. In the United States, the growing gap between rich and poor is the “meta concern” of the Occupy Wall Street movement. Worldwide, frustrations appear to be on the rise. And, in sub-Saharan Africa, sustained economic growth may have produced tremendous advances, but a large proportion of the population is still living in poverty. Here, the underlying situation is a little more complex. In July, I wrote about the importance of inclusive growth and whether economic growth was a necessary or a sufficient condition for poverty reduction. Our latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa takes that thinking a step further, with new analysis that looks at how living standards for the poorest households have actually been changing in some countries in the region.

Dealing with Uncertain Economic Times: The Outlook for Asia

2017-04-15T14:18:33-04:00October 13, 2011|

Recent large equity sell-offs across Asia and safe haven flows into Japan illustrate perfectly the region’s vulnerabilities to further global shocks. While the region’s fundamentals—built up over the past decade—remain relatively strong, economic uncertainties in Europe and the United States pose large downside risks. The world economy has entered a dangerous new phase and, as the IMF’s Managing Director stated recently, “what makes the situation all the more urgent is that it has implications for every country.” Our Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific emphasizes these risks, and stresses the need for policymakers to remain vigilant and nimble in this extraordinarily uncertain climate. The view from here in Tokyo—looking out at the region—may be more serene than the view from other advanced country capitals, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.
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