By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in Français, español, 中文, Русский, 日本語)
The recovery continues, but it is weak and uneven.
You have now seen the basic numbers from our latest projections in the October 2014 World Economic Outlook released today. We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast.
This number hides however very different evolutions. Some countries have recovered or nearly recovered. But others are still struggling.
Looking around the world, economies are subject to two main forces. One from the past: Countries have to deal with the legacies of the financial crisis, ranging from debt overhangs to high unemployment. One from the future, or more accurately, the anticipated future: Potential growth rates are being revised down, and these worse prospects are in turn affecting confidence, demand, and growth today.
Because these two forces play in different countries to different degrees, economic evolutions are becoming more differentiated. With this in mind, let me take you on the usual quick tour of the world: