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Global Economic Upswing Creates a Window of Opportunity

By Maurice Obstfeld

October 10, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

 

The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace. The picture is very different from early last year, when the world economy faced faltering growth and financial market turbulence. We see an accelerating cyclical upswing boosting Europe, China, Japan, and the United States, as well as emerging Asia.

The latest World Economic Outlook has therefore upgraded its global growth projections to 3.6 percent for this year and 3.7 percent for next—in both cases 0.1 percentage point above our previous forecasts, and well above 2016’s global growth rate of 3.2 percent, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis. Continue reading “Global Economic Upswing Creates a Window of Opportunity” »

By | October 10th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital markets, developing countries, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Environment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Government, IMF, inclusive growth, Inequality, monetary policy, structural reforms, technology, trade, wages|
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Inequality: Tools from the Old Masters to Help Today’s Policymakers

By Vitor Gaspar, Paolo Mauro, and Tigran Poghosyan

October 3, 2017

Unemployed day laborers in South Africa: the country has relatively high income, but also high inequality (photo: Rogan Ward/Newscom).

With inequality rising in many countries, policymakers need to choose the best fiscal policies that will help share the benefits of economic growth, and in so doing, make it more inclusive.

The early 20th century English economist Arthur Pigou, among others, saw economic welfare as influenced by both “the size of the national dividend” and “the way in which it is distributed among the members of the community.” Continue reading “Inequality: Tools from the Old Masters to Help Today’s Policymakers” »

By | October 3rd, 2017|Economic outlook, Economic research, education, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Globalization, Government, IMF, inclusive growth, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, poverty, U.S.|
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How Policy Makers Can Better Predict a Downturn – and Prepare

By Claudio Raddatz and Jay Surti

October 3, 2017

Versions in  عربي (Arabic) 文,  (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French),日本語  (Japanese),  Русский (Russian)

A trading floor in Singapore. Financial conditions provide valuable clues to the economic outlook and can improve the accuracy of forecasts (photo: Caro/Oberhaeuser/Newscom).

The global financial crisis showed that periods of robust growth and seeming calm in financial markets can be followed by a sudden surge in market volatility and an unexpected economic downdraft. That’s why it is so important for policy makers to keep a close watch on so-called financial conditions. These can include everything from bond yields and oil prices to foreign exchange rates and levels of domestic debt. Continue reading “How Policy Makers Can Better Predict a Downturn – and Prepare” »

By | October 3rd, 2017|Advanced Economies, banking, capital markets, commodities, Debt Relief, Economic outlook, Economic research, exchange rates, Financial Crisis, financial policy, Globalization, Government, IMF, inclusive growth, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Public debt|
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Chart of the Week: High Hurdles for Trade in Services

By IMFBlog

September 25, 2017

A shop window in Stockholm, Sweden: 62 % of jobs in the country are in the services sector (photo: Bob Strong/Reuters/Newscom).

The service sector accounts for some two-thirds of economic activity, and roughly the same share of jobs around the world. And yet the barriers to trade in services—from banking to online consultations with doctors or engineers—remain high.

Continue reading “Chart of the Week: High Hurdles for Trade in Services” »

By | September 25th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital flows, capital markets, commodities, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Globalization, inclusive growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, labor markets, productivity, technology, trade|
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Structural Reforms Give Biggest Help To Lagging Countries

By Angana Banerji and Christian Ebeke

September 22, 2017

Structural reforms can jumpstart productivity in countries with weaker initial productivity, and help them catch up with their peers (photo: The Palmer/iStock).

Labor and product market reforms, which make economies more efficient, can benefit all countries. But they are especially helpful in jumpstarting productivity in countries where productivity is weaker. This is good news as it implies that reforms are one route through which countries with lower per capita incomes can catch up with richer countries instead of persistently lagging behind: economic hardship is not destiny. Our new paper provides fresh arguments in favor of the often-difficult structural reforms. Continue reading “Structural Reforms Give Biggest Help To Lagging Countries” »

By | September 22nd, 2017|developing countries, Economic outlook, Economic research, Global Governance, Globalization, Government, growth, inclusive growth, International Monetary Fund, labor markets, Low-income countries, productivity, Reform, structural reforms|
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Growth That Reaches Everyone: Facts, Factors, Tools

By Rupa Duttagupta, Stefania Fabrizio, Davide Furceri, and Sweta Saxena

September 20, 2017

Versions in Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish) 

People lining up in front of a charity house in São Paulo, Brazil: Over 200 million people around the world are unemployed, despite overall economic growth (photo: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters/Newscom)

Economic growth provides the basis for overcoming poverty and lifting living standards. But for growth to be sustained and inclusive, its benefits must reach all people.

While strong economic growth is necessary for economic development, it is not always sufficient.

Over the past few decades, growth has raised living standards and provided job opportunities, lifting millions out of extreme poverty. But, we have also seen a flip side. Inequality has risen in several advanced economies and remains stubbornly high in many that are still developing. Continue reading “Growth That Reaches Everyone: Facts, Factors, Tools” »

By | September 20th, 2017|Economic research, Employment, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, poverty, productivity, structural reforms, technology, unemployment, wages|
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Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: Harnessing the Power of Good Governance

By Poul Thomsen

July 27, 2017

Dubrovnik, Croatia. Countries in the region should continue working on good governance for higher growth (photo: Album/Prisma/Newscom)

In many ways, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe is an incredible success story. In less than a generation, countries moved from centrally-planned economies to market-based ones—transforming their legal systems, public administrations, and economic policies, to name a few key elements. Yet, for the sake of higher growth in the future, countries need to continue enhancing institutions and good governance.

Enhancing institutions and good governance—the efficient governing of a country—remains at the core of the reform agenda to raise prosperity to advanced European living standards. Many countries have joined the European Union, a vital anchor toward these goals, and others are aspiring to join. Continue reading “Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: Harnessing the Power of Good Governance” »

By | July 27th, 2017|capital markets, euro zone, Europe, Financial Crisis, Global Governance, growth, inclusive growth, income, International Monetary Fund, labor markets, productivity, taxation|
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Corrosive and Costly Corruption

By IMFblog

July 14, 2017 

Corruption can hurt growth and ruin people’s economic chances (photo: Eugene Keebler/iStock)

Corruption can lead to pervasive distrust in government, generating violence, civil strife, and conflict. And the results are devastating for people.

Another problem is that corruption is costly—particularly for those who are already worse off. IMF research shows that in countries with greater levels of corruption, infant mortality and dropout rates are especially high, partly due to less spending on health and education. Reduced investment in these areas tends to hurt poor people the most, and contributes to higher inequality. Continue reading “Corrosive and Costly Corruption” »

By | July 14th, 2017|corruption, Economic research, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, inclusive growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics, productivity, Public debt, taxation|
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Fintech: Capturing the Benefits, Avoiding the Risks

By Christine Lagarde

June 20, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

A signboard at a store in Guangzhou, China, lists various forms of mobile payment (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

When you send an email, it takes one click of the mouse to deliver a message next door or across the planet. Gone are the days of special airmail stationery and colorful stamps to send letters abroad.

International payments are different. Destination still matters. You might use cash to pay for a cup of tea at a local shop, but not to order tea leaves from distant Sri Lanka. Depending on the carrier, the tea leaves might arrive before the seller can access the payment. Continue reading “Fintech: Capturing the Benefits, Avoiding the Risks” »

By | June 20th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital flows, capital markets, Economic outlook, Economic research, education, Emerging Markets, exports, Globalization, IMF, imports, inclusive growth, Investment, labor markets, productivity, technology, Transition|
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