Gustavo Adler – IMF Blog

Global Imbalances: Avoiding a Tragedy of the Commons

IMFBlog2019-03-25T11:14:49-04:00July 28, 2017|

July 28, 2017

Since 2013, global imbalances have become increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. Surplus and deficit countries alike bear responsibility for correcting excess external imbalances (photo: Caro Oberhaeuser/Newscom)

We have just released our latest assessments of external positions for the 29 largest economies. As discussed in this year’s External Sector Report, excess current account imbalances—that is, those beyond the levels warranted by country fundamentals—were broadly unchanged in 2016. They represented about one-third of total actual surpluses and deficits, with only small shifts in 2016. […]

Latin America: Riding the Global Financial Waves

IMFBlog2017-04-15T14:07:01-04:00June 17, 2012|

Simulations show that despite increasing financial integration, output costs associated with global financial shocks in Latin America have declined in the past 15 years. Of course, the progress made so far does not make the region immune, but has helped it to ride more safely through the recent global financial waves. As we’ve pointed out previously, the region should take precautions in case of a bigger global downturn. But so far it can take credit for its hard work on the policy front.

Regional Spillovers in South America: How “Systemic” is Brazil?

IMFBlog2017-04-15T14:07:30-04:00May 29, 2012|

We quantify the spillovers from Brazil to other countries in South America. The results confirm that Brazil has a significant influence on Southern Cone countries, particularly on Mercosur partners (Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay), but not on the Andean economies. For the Southern Cone countries, spillovers from Brazil can take two forms: the transmission of shocks originating in Brazil and the amplification (through Brazil) of global shocks. These two factors explain an important share of the fluctuations in economy activity in the Southern Cone countries.