Chart of the weekGlobal Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High

2020-04-05T08:25:17-04:00April 4, 2020|

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri

The coronavirus continues to spread. As more countries impose quarantines and social distancing, the fear of contagion and income losses is increasing uncertainty around the world.

A new measure of economic uncertainty related to pandemics and other disease outbreaks finds that uncertainty around the coronavirus is exceptionally high and is much higher than in past outbreaks.

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A Call for Vigilance After a Strong Year for Risky Assets

2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 28, 2020|

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci

عربي, 中文, Español, Français

While we have seen some recent volatility, many risky asset markets around the world had a spectacular year in 2019. Equity market indices were up just over 30 percent in the United States, close to 25 percent in Europe and China, and over 15 percent in emerging markets and Japan. Emerging-market sovereign debt, U.S. high-yield debt, and emerging-market corporate debt all had returns in excess of 12 percent. Remarkably, the fourth quarter of 2019 was […]

Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?

2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 20, 2020|

By Gita Gopinath

عربي, 中文Español, Français, 日本語, PortuguêsРусский

In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. […]

All the Way to the Top: Industrial Policy, Innovation, and Sustained Growth

2019-11-13T08:30:17-05:00November 13, 2019|

By Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

The odds of poor or middle-income countries achieving the stardom of the “Asian Miracles” within a generation or two, or even three, are small. Between 1960 and 2014, only 16 developing economies worldwide were able to vault into high-income status, and many of those were fortunate enough to have discovered oil or join the European Union. […]

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