With Global Financial Markets, How Much Control Do Countries Have Over Economic Policies?

By Selim Ali Elekdag and Gaston Gelos

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

The outlook for further interest-rate increases by the US Federal Reserve revives interest in a compelling question: In an increasingly integrated global financial system, how much control do countries outside of the US retain over their economic policies?

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Two Things That Keep Central Banks’ Reserve Managers Awake at Night

By Veronica Bacalu, Vincent Fleuriet, and Asad Qureshi

One of the central bank’s roles is to manage a country’s international reserves. But, central bank reserve managers have been losing sleep over two main issues: low interest rates, and how best to communicate the choices they make. Continue reading “Two Things That Keep Central Banks’ Reserve Managers Awake at Night” »

Rising Latin American Corporate Risk: Walking a Tightrope

By Carlos Caceres and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos

Versions in Português (Portuguese) and Español (Spanish)

The rapid increase in Latin American corporate debt—fueled by an abundance of cheap foreign money during the past decade—has contributed to an increase in corporate risk. Total debt of nonfinancial firms in Latin America increased from US$170 billion in 2010 to US$383 billion in 2015. With potential growth across countries in the region slowing, in line with the end of the commodity supercycle, it will now be more difficult for firms to operate under increased debt burdens and reduced safety margins.

In this environment, Latin American firms are walking a tightrope. With external financial conditions tightening, the walk towards the other side—notably through adjustment and deleveraging—while necessary, has become riskier. After making good progress, the crossing has also become more perilous due to strong headwinds—including slower global demand and bouts of heightened market volatility.

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Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016: Adjusting to a Harsher Reality

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Alejandro Werner

By Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.

The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). Continue reading “Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016: Adjusting to a Harsher Reality” »

By | January 22nd, 2016|Economic outlook, growth, IMF|0 Comments

Measure to Measure: The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Growth and Stability

Vitor GasparBy Vitor Gaspar

Does fiscal policy respond systematically to economic activity? Can fiscal policy promote macroeconomic stability? Does greater stability support stronger growth? The answer is yes on all counts. This finding, while seemingly obvious, is now backed by numbers to match each question. The April 2015 Fiscal Monitor explores how.

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