Exports | IMF Blog

Chart of the Week: Iceland’s Tourism Eruption

August 14, 2017

Tourists at Jokulsarlon iceberg lagoon in eastern Iceland. Tourism has become a pillar of the Nordic island’s economy (photo: Picture Alliance/Paul Mayall/Newscom).

Iceland’s tourist industry is burgeoning as adventure-seeking visitors flock to the rugged Nordic nation to partake in activities such as whale watching, ice climbing and spelunking.

The number of foreign visitors to Iceland surged 40 percent to 1.8 million last year – dwarfing the island’s population of 335,000. This year, Keflavík airport expects another 27 percent increase, to 2.2 million, according to estimates cited in a recent study by IMF economist Uwe Böwer. Continue reading “Chart of the Week: Iceland’s Tourism Eruption” »

By IMFBlog| August 14th, 2017|Advanced Economies, commodities, Economic research, education, Emerging Markets, exports, Government, growth, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund|

Tariffs Do More Harm Than Good at Home

By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語(Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)

A longstanding challenge for the global economy is the possibility that some countries compete for export markets through artificially low prices. Political leaders and pundits sometimes propose import tariffs to offset the supposed price advantages and exert pressure for policy changes abroad. What proponents often fail to realize is that such tariff policies, while certainly hurting their targets, can also be very costly at home. And surprisingly, the self-inflicted harm can be substantial even when trade partners do not retaliate with tariffs of their own. Continue reading “Tariffs Do More Harm Than Good at Home” »

By IMFBlog| September 8th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Employment, IMF, International Monetary Fund, U.S., Uncategorized|

The Lowdown on U.S. Core Inflation

By Yasser Abdih

There was a time when U.S. central bankers worried that inflation was too high, and they tried to bring it down. Now the opposite is true: the Federal Reserve is concerned that inflation has remained stubbornly low, and it’s trying to boost prices. The reason: persistently low inflation raises the risk that prices will actually start to decline, a dangerous condition known as deflation. That’s bad news because it makes people less willing to borrow and spend—anticipating lower prices, consumers will put off spending—and could also lead to a fall in wages. Continue reading “The Lowdown on U.S. Core Inflation” »

By IMFBlog| July 26th, 2016|Advanced Economies, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|

Oil Exporters Learn to Live with Cheaper Oil

By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey

Version in عربي (Arabic)

The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.

Continue reading “Oil Exporters Learn to Live with Cheaper Oil” »

By IMFBlog| June 8th, 2016|growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, trade, Uncategorized|

Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?

By Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar, and Saurabh Mishra

The expansion of India’s exports of services between 1990 and 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular, putting India on a par with the world’s high-income economies in terms of service-product sophistication and as a share of total exports. This has created unique opportunities for continued growth. By contrast, when it comes to exports of manufactured goods, India has lagged behind its emerging-markets peers, both in quality and as a percentage of the total export basket, leaving substantial room for improvement.

Continue reading “Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?” »

By IMFBlog| May 5th, 2016|Advanced Economies, developing countries, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, U.S., Uncategorized|

China and Africa: Will the Honeymoon Continue?

By Wenjie Chen and Roger Nord

(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, Português, and Español)

China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge of US$60 billion in financial support over the next three years illustrates the depth of the partnership between China and Africa.

However, China’s shift from an investment-heavy, export led growth strategy to an economic model that relies more on domestic consumption has led to a dramatic decline in commodity prices. Lower commodity prices and lower volumes of trade have hit sub-Saharan Africa’s commodity exporters hard. But over the medium term, this shift may offer sub-Saharan African countries the opportunity to diversify their economies away from natural resources, and create jobs for their young populations, provided they pursue the right policies to foster competitiveness and integrate into global value chains.

Continue reading “China and Africa: Will the Honeymoon Continue?” »

By IMFBlog| December 21st, 2015|Africa, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Transition|

Multi-Track Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies: What This Means for Asia

By James Daniel and Rachel van Elkan

Since mid-2014, diversity and divergence—applying to countries’ economic situations, policies and performance—have dominated global economic discussions. Differing economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies.

Both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have started significant expansions of their balance sheets, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has ended its bond-buying program and is expected to start raising rates. This has had many effects, in particular, contributing to a sharp depreciation of the Yen and the Euro against the U.S. dollar (see chart 1).

Continue reading “Multi-Track Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies: What This Means for Asia” »

By IMFBlog| April 27th, 2015|Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform, Uncategorized|

A Tale of Two States—Bringing Back U.S. Productivity Growth

By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan

(Versión en español)

Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands?

Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses.

Continue reading “A Tale of Two States—Bringing Back U.S. Productivity Growth” »

By IMFBlog| September 25th, 2014|Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|

For Africa, Good Policies Bring Good Prospects

By Antoinette M. Sayeh

(Version in Français)

Once again, the latest review of growth prospects for sub-Saharan Africa shows that the region’s economy is in strong health. Growth in the region is set to pick up to 5½ percent in 2014 compared to 4.9 percent last year (see Chart 1). My view is that this growth momentum will continue over the medium term if countries rise to new challenges and manage their economies as dexterously as they have over the past decade or so.

So what explains this continued strong growth performance? Apart from good macroeconomic policies in the region, the growth has been underpinned by investment in infrastructure, mining, and strong agricultural output. And favorable global tailwinds—high demand for commodities and low interest rates—have played a major supporting role.

Continue reading “For Africa, Good Policies Bring Good Prospects” »

By IMFBlog| April 24th, 2014|Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Français, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Português, Uncategorized|

If China Sneezes, Africa Can Now Catch a Cold

By Paulo Drummond and Estelle Xue Liu

(Version in 中文)

Growing links with China have supported economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. But the burgeoning commercial and financial ties between the developing subcontinent and the world’s second-biggest economy carry risks as well. These links also expose sub-Saharan African countries to potentially negative spillovers from China if the Asian giant’s growth slows or the composition of its demand changes.

The old aphorism “If America sneezes, the world catches a cold” referred to the U.S. economy’s role as a locomotive for the global economy, but it can now apply to any symbiotic relationship between a dominant economy and its clients. China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa. It is now the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.

Continue reading “If China Sneezes, Africa Can Now Catch a Cold” »

By IMFBlog| March 20th, 2014|Africa, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Uncategorized|

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