A Long, Uneven and Uncertain Ascent

2020-11-16T10:48:03-05:00October 13, 2020|

By Gita Gopinath

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with over 1 million lives tragically lost so far. Living with the novel coronavirus has been a challenge like no other, but the world is adapting. As a result of eased lockdowns and the rapid deployment of policy support at an unprecedented scale by central banks and governments around the world, the global economy is coming back from the depths of its collapse in the first half of this year. Employment has partially rebounded after having plummeted during the peak of the crisis.

This crisis is however far from over. Employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market has become more polarized with low-income workers, youth, and women being harder hit. The poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain. It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible.

This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and it will take significant innovation on the policy front, at both […]

All the Way to the Top: Industrial Policy, Innovation, and Sustained Growth

2019-11-13T08:30:17-05:00November 13, 2019|

By Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

The odds of poor or middle-income countries achieving the stardom of the “Asian Miracles” within a generation or two, or even three, are small. Between 1960 and 2014, only 16 developing economies worldwide were able to vault into high-income status, and many of those were fortunate enough to have discovered oil or join the European Union. […]

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

2019-03-13T10:57:28-04:00December 4, 2018|

By Jiaqian Chen

December 4, 2018

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A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom)

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions. […]

Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize

2019-03-13T13:33:15-04:00October 8, 2018|

By Maurice Obstfeld

October 9, 2018

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Uncertainty over trade policy is becoming a drag on economic activity (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over 2018–19 at last year’s rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016. It occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflationary fears have dissipated. Thus, policymakers still have an excellent opportunity to build resilience and implement growth-enhancing reforms.

[…]

Back to School Blogs

2019-03-13T14:42:22-04:00September 7, 2018|

By IMFBlog

September 7, 2018 

عربيBaˈhasa indoneˈsia中文, EspañolFrançais,日本語, Português, Русский

Girls on their first day of school: our latest blog helps you catch up on all the news of the summer (Shadi Jarar’ah/Newscom)

As your list of things to do gets longer and the days grow shorter, you know summer is fading, just like your tan.

To help you quickly catch up on the news and policy debates of the summer—if you live in the Northern Hemisphere—our editors have put together a list of our top reads on economics and finance.  […]

The Long-Term Impact of Brexit on the European Union

2019-03-13T15:25:22-04:00August 10, 2018|

By Jiaqian Chen, Christian Ebeke, Li Lin, Haonan Qu, and Jesse Siminitz

August 10, 2018

Versions in EspañolFrançaisPortuguês

A container ship entering the Port of Marseille, France: The UK is among the European Union’s largest trading partners, accounting for about 13 percent of its trade in goods and services (photo: Gerard Bottino/Newscom)

When the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, higher barriers to trade, capital flows, and labor mobility will affect output and jobs not only in the UK but also in the remaining 27 EU member states. […]

How To Deal With Failed Banks

2019-03-14T09:56:10-04:00July 3, 2018|

By Deniz Igan

July 3, 2018

Versions in EspañolPortuguês

Reforms since the global financial crisis have made bail-ins a credible option and bail-outs less likely (photo: iStock by Getty Images)

During the global financial crisis, policymakers faced a steep trade-off in handling bank failures. Using public funds to rescue failing banks (bail-outs) could weaken market discipline and lead to excessive risk taking—the moral hazard effect. […]

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