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The Calculus of Conflict in the Middle East

Lagarde.2015MDPORTRAIT4_114x128 By Christine Lagarde

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語(Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

As world leaders head to New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly, there is still no end to the heart-breaking images of war-torn cities in the Middle East and North Africa, and of a massive exodus of people looking for sanctuary and opportunities to sustain a livelihood.

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By IMFBlog| September 16th, 2016|Economic research, International Monetary Fund, Migration, Uncategorized|0 Comments

The Euro Area Workforce is Aging, Costing Growth

By Shekhar Aiyar, Christian Ebeke, and Xiaobo Shao

Versions in Français (French), and Español (Spanish)

In parallel to the aging of the general population, the workforce in the euro area is also growing older. This could cause productivity growth to decline in the years ahead, raising another policy challenge for governments already dealing with legacies from the crisis such as high unemployment and debt. Continue reading “The Euro Area Workforce is Aging, Costing Growth” »

By IMFBlog| August 17th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Employment, euro zone, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|0 Comments

The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits

By Andy Jobst and Huidan Lin

Versions in Français (French), and Español (Spanish)

More than two years ago, seeking to revive a moribund economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked on a new monetary policy measure: charging interest on excess liquidity that banks held at the central bank. The move complemented a series of other easing measures aimed at bringing inflation back to the ECB’s price stability objective of below, but close to, two percent over the medium term. Continue reading “The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits” »

By IMFBlog| August 10th, 2016|Economic research, euro zone, Financial regulation, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|2 Comments

Sluggish Business Investment in the Euro Area: The Roles of Small and Medium Enterprises and Debt

By John C. Bluedorn and Christian Ebeke

Small businesses could be the lifeblood of Europe’s economy, but their size and high debt are two of the factors holding back the investment recovery in the euro area. The solution partly lies in policies to help firms grow and reduce debt.

Our new study, part of the IMF’s annual economic health check of the euro area, takes a novel bottom-up look at the problem. We analyze the drivers of investment using a large dataset of over six million observations in eight euro area countries, from 2003 to 2013: Austria, Belgium, Germany, France, Finland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Continue reading “Sluggish Business Investment in the Euro Area: The Roles of Small and Medium Enterprises and Debt” »

By IMFBlog| August 4th, 2016|Economic research, euro zone, Finance, Financial Crisis, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Emigration Slows Eastern Europe’s Catch Up With the West

By Nadeem Ilahi, Anna Ilyina, and Daria Zakharova

(Versions in: Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Hungarian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbian, and Slovenian)

The opening up of Eastern Europe to the rest of the world in the early 1990s brought about tremendous benefits. The inflow of capital and innovation has led to better institutions, better economic management, and higher efficiency. On the flip side, it has also led to sizable and persistent outflow of people.

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By IMFBlog| July 20th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Economic research, Employment, euro zone, growth, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Migration, refugees, Uncategorized, unemployment|0 Comments

Five Lessons from a Review of Recent Crisis Programs

By Vivek Arora

Version in 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish)

IMF lending increased to unprecedented levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. As difficulties emerged, we extended financial support to countries across the world—in the euro area, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and emerging economies in Europe.

The IMF tried to draw lessons in real time as the crisis evolved in order to adapt our operations. We reviewed individual programs and, from time to time, paused and took stock of our experience across countries.

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By IMFBlog| July 11th, 2016|Economic research, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Growing Older: Germany Needs Reforms

By Enrica Detragiache, Jean-Marc Natal, and Joana Pereira

Version in Deutsch (German)

Germany, a champion of structural reform prescriptions within the European Union, needs a large dose of the same medicine at home, too. Beyond public investment in transport and telecommunications, and more competition in services, dealing with an aging population needs urgent attention. With the right policies, Germany can bring more people into the workforce—and for longer—to counter the demographic trend, argues a recent study accompanying the regular health check of the German economy by the International Monetary Fund.

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By IMFBlog| June 29th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Employment, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized, unemployment|0 Comments

A Fresh Look at Globalization

By David Lipton

There were a lot of dramatic headlines over the weekend suggesting that Brexit signals the beginning of the end of globalization. Surely, it is too soon to understand all the ramifications of the British referendum. But at the same time, today is surely a good day to make the case for multilateralism. While there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the future, I will argue that globalization still has promise. But to achieve that promise, we will need a fresh look at multilateralism and the role the international financial institutions can play.

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By IMFBlog| June 27th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Asia, Emerging Markets, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Addition by Subtraction: How Diasporas Can Boost Home-Country Growth

By Pritha Mitra

Version in عربي (Arabic)

Every year, millions of people leave their countries of birth in search of better opportunities abroad. Often, these migrants are among the most talented workers in their home countries. At first glance, this is a loss for the home countries, which invested considerable time and money in educating and developing these people, only to watch them leave. But look again.

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By IMFBlog| May 18th, 2016|Emerging Markets, Employment, Government, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Migration, technology, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Warning Signs as Global Financial Risks Increase

By José Viñals

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Over the last six months, global financial stability risks increased as a result of the following developments:

First, macroeconomic risks have risen, reflecting a weaker and more uncertain outlook for growth and inflation, and more subdued sentiment. These risks were highlighted yesterday at the World Economic Outlook press conference.

Second, falling commodity prices and concerns about China’s economy have put pressure on emerging markets and advanced economy credit markets.

Finally, confidence in policy traction has slipped, amid concerns about the ability of overburdened monetary policies to offset the impact of higher economic and political risks.

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By IMFBlog| April 13th, 2016|Advanced Economies, euro zone, Finance, Financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, U.S.|0 Comments

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