A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

2019-01-21T10:05:47-05:00January 21, 2019|

By Gita Gopinath

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While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. […]

Five Actions to Strengthen the Euro Area Banking Union

2019-03-13T10:49:35-04:00December 14, 2018|

By Atilla Arda, Daniel Hardy, and Maike B. Luedersen

December 14, 2018

Français, Italiano

View of skyscrapers in the banking district in Frankfurt am Main, Germany: Progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen the euro area’s banking union (photo: imageBROKER/Stefan Ziese/Newscom)

Dealing with problem banks in a prompt, efficient, and even-handed manner is essential for the European banking union. […]

The Financial System Is Stronger, but New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged in the Decade Since the Crisis

2019-03-13T12:46:35-04:00October 9, 2018|

By Tobias Adrian

October 10, 2018

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Debt owed by governments, companies and households in economies with globally systemically important financial sectors has risen since the global financial crisis (Photo: Richard B. Levine/Newscom)

Although the global expansion has plateaued, easy monetary policies continue to support growth. But we shouldn’t rest too easily. Chapter 1 of the latest Global Financial Stability Report finds that short-term risks to the financial system have increased somewhat over the past six months. […]

Euro Area Inflation: Why Low For So Long?

2019-03-13T15:15:23-04:00August 28, 2018|

By Yasser Abdih, Li Lin, Anne-Charlotte Paret 

August 28, 2018

Sculpture of the euro outside the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany: Convergence of core inflation towards the ECB’s medium-term objective is likely to be gradual (photo: Alex Domanski/REUTERS/Newscom)

The euro area economy is in its fifth year of recovery, unemployment is close to its pre-crisis level and the output gaps of most countries have closed. Yet, core inflation continues to be low, notwithstanding temporarily high headline inflation due to higher energy prices. […]

Shifting Tides: Policy Challenges and Opportunities for the G-20

2019-03-13T16:33:37-04:00July 18, 2018|

By Christine Lagarde

July 18, 2018

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Cars to be shipped abroad, Jiangsu, China: trade tariffs have gone into effect and export orders have decreased (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

The artist Claude Monet once said, “I worked without stopping, for the tide at this moment is just as I need it.” As the Group of Twenty finance ministers gather this week at the banks of the Rio de la Plata in Buenos Aires they should be inspired by the words of Monet, […]

The Global Expansion: Still Strong but Less Even, More Fragile, Under Threat

2019-03-14T09:28:49-04:00July 16, 2018|

By Maurice Obstfeld

July 16, 2018

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The escalation of trade tensions is the greatest near-term threat to global growth (photo: wildpixel/Getty Images by iStock)

Amid rising tensions over international trade, the broad global expansion that began roughly two years ago has plateaued and become less balanced. […]

Malta’s Good Bet

2019-03-14T11:56:10-04:00May 7, 2018|

By IMFBlog

May 7, 2018

Marsaxlokk Harbor, Malta. Not only tourist paradise: the country’s economy makes profits on the betting and gambling industry (photo: iStockPhoto/Andrey Danilovich).

Known mostly for its azure seas and spectacular old towns, Malta has also become a hub for gambling and betting companies: nowhere else in the European Union does this sector account for such a large part of the economy as on the island south of Sicily in the Mediterranean Sea. While the gambling and betting boom contributes to the country’s trade balance and job creation, it also draws attention to a skills shortage and infrastructure gaps the sector is grappling with, a recent IMF paper shows. […]

Global Economy: Good News for Now but Trade Tensions a Threat

2019-03-14T12:25:32-04:00April 17, 2018|

By Maurice Obstfeld

April 17, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  baˈhasa indoneˈsia (Indonesian), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Container ship in Colombo, Sri Lanka: the recent escalating tensions over trade present a growing risk to the global economy (photo: STRINGER/REUTERS/Newscom).

The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of a similarly broad-based conflict over trade presents a jarring picture.

Three months ago, we updated our global growth forecast for this year and next substantially, to 3.9 percent in both years. That forecast is being borne out by continuing strong performance in the euro area, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which grew above expectations last year. We also project near-term improvements for several other emerging market and developing economies, including some recovery in commodity exporters. Continuing to power the world economy’s upswing are accelerations in investment and, notably, in trade. […]

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