A Call for Vigilance After a Strong Year for Risky Assets

2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 28, 2020|

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci

عربي, 中文, Español, Français

While we have seen some recent volatility, many risky asset markets around the world had a spectacular year in 2019. Equity market indices were up just over 30 percent in the United States, close to 25 percent in Europe and China, and over 15 percent in emerging markets and Japan. Emerging-market sovereign debt, U.S. high-yield debt, and emerging-market corporate debt all had returns in excess of 12 percent. Remarkably, the fourth quarter of 2019 was […]

The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits

2019-03-26T16:33:44-04:00August 10, 2016|

By Andy Jobst and Huidan Lin

Versions in Français (French), and Español (Spanish)

More than two years ago, seeking to revive a moribund economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked on a new monetary policy measure: charging interest on excess liquidity that banks held at the central bank. The move complemented a series of other easing measures aimed at bringing inflation back to the ECB’s price stability objective of below, but close to, two percent over the medium term. […]

Greece: Past Critiques and the Path Forward

2019-03-27T15:38:46-04:00July 9, 2015|

IMG_0248By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in DeutschEspañolFrançaisItalianoελληνικάРусский中文, 日本語عربي, and Português)

All eyes are on Greece, as the parties involved continue to strive for a lasting deal, spurring vigorous debate and some sharp criticisms, including of the IMF.

In this context, I thought some reflections on the main critiques could help clarify some key points of contention as well as shine a light on a possible way forward.

The main critiques, as I see them, fall under the following four categories:

Banks Should Help, Not Hinder the Economy

2017-04-14T01:52:28-04:00October 20, 2014|

By Will Kerry and Andrea Maechler 

Banks are struggling to overhaul the way they do business given new realities and new regulations adopted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. While banks are generally stronger—they have more capital—they are less profitable, as measured by the return on equity. There are a number of reasons behind this, including: anemic net income at banks, particularly in the euro area; higher levels of equity; and banks taking fewer risks.

If they cannot change their business models, there is a risk that banks will not be […]

The Slow Recovery Continues

2017-04-14T01:58:26-04:00July 24, 2014|

WEO

By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in Español中文,  日本語Русский )

The recovery continues, but it remains weak, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April.

We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 from 3.7 percent in April to 3.4 percent today. This headline number makes things look worse than they really are. To a large extent, it reflects something that has already happened, namely the large negative US growth rate in the first quarter. […]

Europe’s Economic Outlook

2017-04-14T02:02:25-04:00April 11, 2014|

moghadamsmallBy Reza Moghadam

Economic growth across Europe is slowly picking up, which is good news. But the recovery is still modest and measures to boost economic growth and create jobs are important.

Western Europe: picking up the pace

The recovery projected last October for the euro area has solidified. This is reflected in our revised forecasts—e.g., the 2014 forecast for the euro area is up from 1 percent last October to 1.2 percent now, with important upgrades in countries like Spain. These revisions reflect the stronger data flow on the […]

No Country is an Island: Ireland and the IMF

2017-04-15T14:21:25-04:00July 14, 2011|

Speaking to the pain and anger of the Irish people at the toll the economic adjustment has taken on their daily lives, the IMF’s mission chief Ajai Chopra was clear during a press conference today in Dublin: the end goals is to protect the poor and most vulnerable people in society while restarting the economy. The IMF along with the European Central Bank and the European Commission were in the emerald isle for the regular quarterly review of the government’s economic program.

Unwinding Crisis Policies in Europe: Are We There Yet?

2017-04-15T14:42:25-04:00January 17, 2010|

To successfully unwind the extraordinary policy measures taken in response to the crisis, we need more than just a good sense of the state of the economic recovery and the degree of financial stability. We also need to know to what extent the global economy currently is influenced by those supportive policy measures. Marek Belka, Director of the IMF's European Department and a former Prime Minister of Poland, discusses whether or not it is safe yet to change tack.
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