Limiting the Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus with Large Targeted Policies

2020-03-18T14:41:03-04:00March 9, 2020|

This blog is part of a special series on the response to the coronavirus.

By Gita Gopinath

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This health crisis will have a significant economic fallout, reflecting shocks to supply and demand different from past crises. Substantial targeted policies are needed to support the economy through the epidemic, keeping intact the web of economic and financial relationships between workers and businesses, lenders and borrowers, and suppliers and end-users for activity to recover once the outbreak fades. The goal is to prevent a […]

Smartphones Drive New Global Tech Cycle, but Is Demand Peaking?

2019-03-15T10:49:14-04:00February 8, 2018|

By Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li

February 8, 2018

 Demand for smartphones is highly cyclical and related to the release of new models (photo: iStock by GettyImages).

Over a decade of spectacular growth, demand for smartphones has created a new global tech cycle that last year produced a new smartphone for every fifth person on earth.

This has created a complex and evolving supply chain across […]

It’s Mostly Food: How to Tame Indian Inflation

2019-03-27T11:19:21-04:00March 10, 2016|

By Rahul Anand and Paul Cashin

After being low for decades, inflation in India trended higher from the mid-2000s. It reached 10–11 percent by 2008, and remained elevated at double digits for several years. Even though inflation fell by almost half in 2014, inflation expectations have remained high.

High and persistent inflation in recent years has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. As Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan pointed out at the 8th R.N. Kao Memorial Lecture in 2014, “inflation is a destructive disease … we can’t […]

A Missing Piece In Europe’s Growth Puzzle

2017-04-15T13:56:33-04:00March 5, 2013|

Even before the latest euro area GDP numbers and Italian elections cast a shadow over the continent, economists were struggling to reconcile the steady improvement in market sentiment with the more downbeat data on the economy, production, orders, and jobs. This video looks at this puzzle from a somewhat different perspective than the usual— we examine the role of household and corporate balance sheets in the countries under financial market stress and the implications for policy priorities.

The Ties That Bond Us: What Demand For Government Debt Can Tell Us About the Risks Ahead

2017-04-15T14:00:03-04:00January 17, 2013|

It has become apparent in recent years is that advanced economy government bond markets can also experience investor outflows, and associated runs. Our new research shows that advanced economies’ exposure to refinancing risk and changes in government borrowing costs depend mainly on who is holding the bonds— the demand side for government debt. Tracking who owns what, when and for how long can shed some light on potential risks in advanced economies’ government debt markets.

Building on Latin America’s Success

2017-04-15T14:00:25-04:00December 6, 2012|

Next week, I will travel to Chile and Colombia—my second visit to the region since November 2011. I return with increased optimism, as much of Latin America continues its impressive transformation that started a decade ago.

Mind The Gap: Policies To Jump Start Growth in the U.K.

2017-04-15T14:04:43-04:00July 19, 2012|

The effects of a persistently weak economy and high long-term unemployment can reverberate through a country’s economy long into the future—commonly referred to by economists as hysteresis. Our analysis shows that the large and sustained output gap, the difference between what an economy could produce and what it is producing, raises the danger that a downturn reduces the economy’s productive capacity and permanently depresses potential GDP.
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