Asia’s vigorous pace of growth has seen the region play a leading role in the global recovery. But there are signs that higher commodity prices are spilling over to a more generalized increase in inflation. Expectations of future inflation have picked up. And accommodative macroeconomic policy stances, coupled with limited slack in some economies, have added to inflation pressures. Against this backdrop, the need for policy tightening in Asia has become more pressing than it was six months ago, especially in economies that face generalized inflation pressures. How should policymakers address these challenges?
Abundant global liquidity and high exposure to capital movements have put foreign exchange intervention at center stage of the policy debate in Latin America. Although intervention is widely used, there is limited evidence about its effects on the exchange rate (particularly in terms of slowing the pace of currency appreciation). In the latest Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere we took a fresh look at intervention practices and effectiveness for a group of economies in Latin America and other regions during 2004-10. Our analysis suggests that foreign exchange market interventions may help to mitigate appreciation temporarily. However, the impact depends on the circumstances and characteristics of each country.
The world economic recovery continues. Although global growth is set to slow over the coming year, underlying private demand is improving and we expect the slowdown to be modest. Global growth should remain at 4.4 percent in 2011, down from 5 percent in 2010. But it remains a two-speed recovery: slow in advanced countries, and much faster in emerging and developing economies. As a result, tensions and risks are emerging, which require strong policy responses. In this post, Olivier Blanchard discusses the IMF’s update of the world economic outlook, including the short-term tensions and risks, and what needs to be done, to reduce risks and strengthen the global recovery.
I am in Asia this week to launch our October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (REO) in Jakarta and Singapore. As I have inevitably found during visits to Asia over so many years, the mood here is confident about future economic prospects. Yet it is also watchful for risks that may be lurking over the horizon. This mood matches closely the main messages of our current assessment of the outlook for the region. In the first of several blogs posts from the region, here I reflect on the self-sustaining recovery under way across Asia, the risk external risk factors and, the pressing issue for Asian policymakers, policy options for managing the tide of large capital inflows.