Bad Debt in Emerging Markets: Still Early Days

2019-03-27T14:17:50-04:00November 9, 2015|

by John Caparusso, Yingyuan Chen, Evan Papageorgiou and Shamir Tanna

(Versions in 中文, PortuguêsРусский, and Español)

Emerging markets have had a great run. The fifteen largest emerging market economies grew by 48% from 2009 to 2014, a period when the Group of Twenty economies collectively expanded by 6%.

How did emerging markets sustain this growth? In part, they drew upon bank lending to drive corporate credit expansion, strong earnings, and low defaults. This credit boom, combined with falling commodity prices and foreign currency borrowing, now leaves emerging market firms vulnerable […]

How to Manage the Commodity Roller Coaster

2019-03-27T14:51:53-04:00October 7, 2015|

Vitor Gasparby Vitor Gaspar 

(Versions: عربي中文FrançaisРусский, and Español)

The world economy is experiencing important transitions and associated uncertainties.

  • Commodity prices have fallen sharply, with adverse consequences for exporting countries.
  • China’s rebalancing and the prospect of U.S. interest rate increases are having important and costly spillover effects on other economies.
  • And these and other factors are posing important fiscal challenges, especially for emerging markets.

[…]

The Quest for Robust and Synchronized Growth

2019-03-27T14:54:00-04:00October 6, 2015|

Maurice Obstfeld2By Maurice Obstfeld

(Versions in Españolعربي, 中文Français, Русский and 日本語)

Today, we released the October 2015 World Economic Outlook.

Our forecasts come at a moment when the world economy is at the intersection of at least three powerful forces.

First, China’s economic transformation – away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favor of a greater focus on consumption and services. This process, however necessary and healthy in the longer term, has near-term implications for […]

Uncertain Times, Difficult Choices

2019-03-27T15:03:41-04:00September 28, 2015|

By Vitor Gaspar and Alejandro Werner              

(Versions in Español and Português)                                         

Latin America under stress

After a period of strong growth, economic activity in Latin America has slowed sharply. Growth among the six larger, financially-integrated economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay—is expected to be negative this year. With heightened financial market pressures and limited policy space, the credibility of policy makers is being seriously tested. In this challenging environment, policy-makers in these six countries face some difficult […]

Under Pressure

2019-03-27T15:21:18-04:00August 27, 2015|

Jeff Hayden altBy Jeff Hayden

Between 2004 and 2013, Latin America recorded impressive growth and strong progress on a range of social issues. High commodity prices combined with strengthened economic management and progressive social policies to propel the region forward.

This strength was all the more striking against the backdrop of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, which mired many advanced economies in recession but saw emerging markets, including many in Latin America, power ahead. This led some […]

Raising Long-Run Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean—A Complex(ity) Issue

2019-03-27T16:08:47-04:00June 9, 2015|

By Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos and Ke Wang

(Versions in Español and Português)

Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has weakened significantly over the last few years. Part of this weakness appears to be here to stay, and IMF economists have marked down medium-term growth projections. This story sounds eerily familiar, given the region’s past difficulties to improve its comparative growth performance.

Abstracting from the “golden decade” from 2003 to 2011, when rising commodity prices powered a strong expansion, why has the region been unable to sustain sufficiently high growth rates […]

A Watershed Moment for Latin America: Nine Takeaways from our High-Level Conference

2019-03-27T16:11:04-04:00June 5, 2015|

Alejandro WernerBy Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

Latin America has reached a critical moment. So much better off than two decades ago, and still facing deep-seated problems that get in the way of sustained strong growth and economic development. To better understand these problems from countries’ perspectives, and explore ways the IMF and others can help address them, we brought together experts from the region and beyond—central bankers, finance ministers, and academics—for a high-level conference in Washington, D.C. earlier this week.

Under the […]

Latin America and the Fiscal Stimulus: A Mild Hangover, Not Yet an Addiction

2019-03-27T17:30:25-04:00May 6, 2015|

Alexander KlemmBy Alexander Klemm

(Versions in Español and Português)

Latin America is heading for tougher times. Regional growth is expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015, partly as a result of the drop in global commodity prices. How well placed is the region for the coming lean times?

Countries face this slowdown from much weaker fiscal positions than when the global financial crisis hit. Then, Latin America responded strongly with expansionary fiscal policies, including explicit fiscal stimulus programs in many countries. But, as growth has recovered, […]

Tolstoy & Billionaires: Overheard at the IMF’s Spring Meetings

2019-03-27T17:46:33-04:00April 21, 2015|

By iMFdirect editors

All happy countries are alike; each unhappy country is unhappy in its own way.

This twist on Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina echoed through the seminars during the IMF’s Spring Meetings as most countries, while recovering, are struggling with the prospect of lower potential growth and the “new mediocre” becoming a “new reality.”

Our editors fanned out to cover what officials and civil society had to say about how to help countries pave their own path to happiness.

[…]

Northern Spring, Southern Chills: Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean

2019-03-27T17:47:26-04:00April 17, 2015|

Alejandro WernerBy Alejandro Werner

(Version in Español and Português)

Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean has been cooling down for several years, and the temperature in many places is still falling. Regional growth is now expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015—down from 1.3 percent in 2014. Apart from a short-lived recession during the global financial crisis, this would be the slowest rate of growth since 2002.

However, growth dynamics vary across the region, broadly along North-South lines. While spring may be in the air […]

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