Is India’s growth about to go back to 8-9 percent? The short answer is no. But we need to look back to understand why India’s growth has decelerated to a decade low and why the slump, which has hit investment particularly hard, has persisted for over a year. As structural problems are at the root of the slowdown, so structural reforms must be at the core of the solution.
For decades, countries in the Middle East and North Africa have relied heavily on food and fuel price subsidies as a form of social protection. And, understandably, governments have recently raised subsidies in response to hikes in global commodity prices and regional political developments. Like many things, there may be a time and a place for using subsidies. But, they need to be better targeted. And, often, there will be better alternatives. Alternatives that do a better job of protecting the poor. Subsidies enjoyed by all are typically poorly targeted, so they are not the most cost-effective way to provide social protection. They really should be regarded as stop-gap measures. But, better targeting subsidies or replacing them with more effective social safety nets is a complex process, so buy-in from the public is crucial to success.