What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You

2021-01-19T15:49:34-05:00January 19, 2021|

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri

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Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.

Uncertainty in systemic economies matters for uncertainty […]

Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?

2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 20, 2020|

By Gita Gopinath

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In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. […]

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

2019-01-21T10:05:47-05:00January 21, 2019|

By Gita Gopinath

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While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. […]

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

2019-03-13T10:57:28-04:00December 4, 2018|

By Jiaqian Chen

December 4, 2018

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A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom)

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our […]

Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize

2019-03-13T13:33:15-04:00October 8, 2018|

By Maurice Obstfeld

October 9, 2018

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Uncertainty over trade policy is becoming a drag on economic activity (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over 2018–19 at last year’s rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016. It […]

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