IMFBlog2022-04-15T10:14:18-04:00April 15, 2022|
IMFBlog2022-02-03T16:07:12-05:00January 19, 2022|
IMFBlog2021-01-19T15:49:34-05:00January 19, 2021|
By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri
عربي, Español, 中文, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.
Uncertainty in systemic economies matters for uncertainty around the world.
What drives global uncertainty?
Economic growth in key systemic economies, like those of the United States and European Union, is a key driver of economic activity in the rest of the world. Is this also true when it comes to global uncertainty? For example, given the higher interconnectedness across countries, should we expect that uncertainty from the U.S. election, Brexit, or China-U.S. trade tensions spill over and affect uncertainty in other countries?
To answer this question, we construct an index that measures the extent of “uncertainty spillovers” from key systemic economies—the Group of 7 […]
IMFBlog2021-05-13T12:56:12-04:00January 20, 2020|
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. […]
IMFBlog2019-10-15T09:52:15-04:00October 15, 2019|
IMFBlog2019-07-23T10:05:55-04:00July 23, 2019|
IMFBlog2019-01-21T10:05:47-05:00January 21, 2019|
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. […]
IMFBlog2019-03-13T10:57:28-04:00December 4, 2018|
By Jiaqian Chen
December 4, 2018
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom)
The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions. […]
IMFBlog2019-03-13T11:48:43-04:00November 28, 2018|
November 28, 2018
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский
Puerto Madero harbor, Buenos Aires, Argentina: G20 countries will need to act swiftly and together to boost inclusive growth (photo: Florian Kopp imageBROKER/Newscom)
As G20 leaders gather in Argentina, the global economy faces a critical juncture. […]
