Why Jobs are Plentiful While Workers are Scarce
In the US and UK, the recent labor market puzzle can be partly explained by mismatch, the pandemic’s effect on women (in the US) and older workers leaving the work force.
What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You
By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri
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Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.
Uncertainty in systemic economies matters for uncertainty around the world.
What drives global uncertainty?
Economic growth in key systemic economies, like those of the United States and European Union, is a key driver of economic activity in the rest of the world. Is this also true when it comes to global uncertainty? For example, given the higher interconnectedness across countries, should we expect that uncertainty from the U.S. election, Brexit, or China-U.S. trade tensions spill over and affect uncertainty in other countries?
To answer this question, we construct an index that measures the extent of “uncertainty spillovers” from key systemic economies—the Group of 7 […]
Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?
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In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. […]
Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies
A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks
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While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. […]
The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy
By Jiaqian Chen
December 4, 2018
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A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom)
The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions. […]
G20: Step Up to Boost Inclusive Growth
November 28, 2018
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Puerto Madero harbor, Buenos Aires, Argentina: G20 countries will need to act swiftly and together to boost inclusive growth (photo: Florian Kopp imageBROKER/Newscom)
As G20 leaders gather in Argentina, the global economy faces a critical juncture. […]
Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize
October 9, 2018
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Baˈhasa indoneˈsia, 日本語, Русский
Uncertainty over trade policy is becoming a drag on economic activity (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)
The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over 2018–19 at last year’s rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016. It occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflationary fears have dissipated. Thus, policymakers still have an excellent opportunity to build resilience and implement growth-enhancing reforms.