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China’s Growth: Why Less is More

By | October 29th, 2013|Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt, Uncategorized|

Steve BarnettBy Steven Barnett

(Version in 中文)

Less growth in China today will mean higher income in the future. So rather than worry, we should welcome the slowdown in China’s economy. Why? Because by favoring structural reforms over short-term stimulus, China’s leadership is illustrating their commitment to move to a more balanced and sustainable growth model.

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A Wish List for China’s Third Plenum

By | October 22nd, 2013|Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|

ASinghBy Anoop Singh

(Versions in 中文 and Español)

Hard landing, soft landing, no landing, overheating. Pundits’ views on China’s economy bounce around—often rapidly—between these descriptions.

Just two short months ago, the dominant concern was about a sharp slowdown, below this year’s official growth target of 7½ percent. Now, these fears have retreated, pushed aside by talk of renewed momentum.

Our sense, here at the International Monetary Fund, has always been that economic growth will slightly surpass this year’s official target. But we have also cautioned that China’s economic challenges are growing, and that accelerating reform is critical for containing risks and achieving a smooth transition to sustainable growth.

The upcoming Third Plenum provides an opportunity for the new leadership to provide guidance on how they plan to meet these challenges.

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Achieving China’s Great Promise

By | August 8th, 2013|Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt, Uncategorized|

Murtaza SyedBy Murtaza Syed

(Version in 中文)

Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing has dominated headlines in recent weeks. Half a world away, less conspicuously, but no less importantly, China, the globe’s second largest economy, is designing its own policy adjustments: firstly, unwinding the fiscal and monetary stimulus that helped shield it from the Great Recession and lifted global growth (but which also created some vulnerabilities), and secondly transitioning out of a growth model that has generated spectacular growth over the last three decades, but which is now running out of fuel.

Managed well, these twin adjustments would allow China to prolong its economic miracle in a sustainable way, with a significant positive impact for the rest of the world.

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Lurking in the Shadows—The Risks from Nonbank Intermediation in China

By | November 3rd, 2011|Asia, Financial regulation, International Monetary Fund|

One of my all-time favorite movies is “The Third Man” starring Orson Welles and Joseph Cotten. Perhaps the most striking part of the movie is the shadowy cinematography, set in post-World War II Vienna. Strangely, it springs to mind lately when I have been thinking of China. Many China-watchers looked on in 2009 as the government’s response to the global financial crisis unfolded, causing bank lending to expand by close to 20 percentage points in less than a year. At the same time, a less visible phenomenon was also getting underway. One that, like Orson Welles’ character in the movie, resided firmly in the shadows. Various types of nonbank financial intermediaries were gearing up to provide more credit. Talking to people in China, and looking at what numbers are available, one cannot help but have an uneasy feeling that more credit is now finding its way into the economy outside of the banking system than is actually flowing through the banks. This worries me for four broad reasons.

Darn Them Piggies! Pork Prices & the Inflation Outlook for China

By | September 11th, 2011|Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, 中文|

It was pretty clear to me on a recent visit that China has become one of the biggest global markets for Angry Birds. The game was everywhere and around 100 million Chinese downloads are expected this year. It made me wonder if this was somehow linked to rising concerns over inflation and a way of getting back at those (increasingly expensive) mischievous green pigs. During the past year, views on China’s economy have yo-yoed from concerns about the recovery, to hand-wringing about inflation and overheating, and then back to talk of hard landing. Inflation peaked in July and was all set to quickly retreat in the latter part of this year. Unfortunately, just as China appeared to be heading out of the (inflationary) woods, pork happened. An ongoing (and literal) hog cycle caused pork prices to skyrocket. While the hog-cycle will soon turn and the effects should wash out reasonably quickly, the bad news is that the return to more normal times and lower inflation will be postponed once again.

Inequality: Fiscal Policy Can Make the Difference

By | October 11th, 2017|Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, developing countries, Economic outlook, Economic research, education, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Government, health, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, taxation|

By Vitor Gaspar and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

 October 11, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian)

Wealth and poverty side-by-side in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: inequality is rising within countries around the world (photo: Jean-Marc David/SIPA/Newscom). 

Income inequality among people around the world has been declining in recent decades. This is due to countries like China and India’s incomes catching-up to advanced economies. But the news is not all good. Inequality within countries has increased, particularly in advanced economies. Since the global economic recovery has gained pace and is now widespread, policymakers have a window of opportunity to respond with reforms that tackle inequality, and our new Fiscal Monitor shows how the right mix of fiscal policies can make the difference.

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Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk

By | October 11th, 2017|Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, banking, capital flows, capital markets, Debt Relief, Economic outlook, Economic research, education, Financial markets, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, Government, housing, inclusive growth, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, taxation|

By Tobias Adrian

October 11, 2017

Versions in Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French)

The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany: To avoid causing market turbulence, central banks will have to clearly communicate their plans to gradually unwind crisis-era policies (photo: Caro/Sven Hoffman/Newscom).

It seems like a paradox. The world’s financial system is getting stronger, thanks to healthy economic growth, buoyant markets, and low interest rates. Yet despite these favorable conditions, dangers in the form of rising financial vulnerabilities are starting to loom. That is why policymakers should act now to keep those vulnerabilities in check. Continue reading “Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk” »

Global Economic Upswing Creates a Window of Opportunity

By | October 10th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital markets, developing countries, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Environment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Government, IMF, inclusive growth, Inequality, monetary policy, structural reforms, technology, trade, wages|

By Maurice Obstfeld

October 10, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

 

The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace. The picture is very different from early last year, when the world economy faced faltering growth and financial market turbulence. We see an accelerating cyclical upswing boosting Europe, China, Japan, and the United States, as well as emerging Asia.

The latest World Economic Outlook has therefore upgraded its global growth projections to 3.6 percent for this year and 3.7 percent for next—in both cases 0.1 percentage point above our previous forecasts, and well above 2016’s global growth rate of 3.2 percent, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis. Continue reading “Global Economic Upswing Creates a Window of Opportunity” »

Chart of the Week: High Hurdles for Trade in Services

By | September 25th, 2017|Advanced Economies, capital flows, capital markets, commodities, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Globalization, inclusive growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, labor markets, productivity, technology, trade|

By IMFBlog

September 25, 2017

A shop window in Stockholm, Sweden: 62 % of jobs in the country are in the services sector (photo: Bob Strong/Reuters/Newscom).

The service sector accounts for some two-thirds of economic activity, and roughly the same share of jobs around the world. And yet the barriers to trade in services—from banking to online consultations with doctors or engineers—remain high.

Continue reading “Chart of the Week: High Hurdles for Trade in Services” »

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