Chart of the Week: Conflict’s Legacy for Growth
By IMFBlog
Versions in عربي (Arabic)
May 8, 2017
Conflict has been on the rise since the early 2000s given the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
Conflict leads not only to immeasurable human costs, but also to substantial economic losses with consequences that can persist for years. The tragic rise in conflict has weighed on global GDP growth in recent years, given the increasing number of countries experiencing strife, the severe effect on economic activity, and the considerable size of some of the affected economies.
The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook (Box 1.1) takes a closer look through the lens of conflict’s impact on economic growth and migration. (more…)
Productivity, Technology, and Demographics
By IMFBlog
May 5, 2017
Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, says that if technology cannot boost productivity, then we are in real trouble.
In a podcast interview, Varian says thirty years from now, the global labor force will look very different, as working age populations in many countries, especially in advanced economies, start to shrink. While some workers today worry they will lose their jobs because of technology, economists are wondering if it will boost productivity enough to compensate for the shifting demographics—the so-called productivity paradox.
Emerging Economy Consumers Drive Infrastructure Needs
By Paolo Mauro
May 4, 2017
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
The infrastructure needs of emerging market economies, like China or India, differ from those of advanced economies like the United States or Germany. Many emerging economies must substantially expand their energy and transportation networks, or build them from scratch, to accommodate rapid economic growth. Our research shows the more people make, the more they spend on transportation. With emerging economies’ middle classes booming and incomes rising, this has big implications for how policymakers choose to invest in infrastructure. (more…)
Chart of the Week: The Cost of Asia’s Aging
By IMFBlog
May 1, 2017
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Bahasa (Indonesia), and 本語 (Japanese)
When it comes to tackling demographic change in Asia, there’s no one-size-fits-all strategy for policymakers. In some countries, like Japan, the population is aging rapidly, and the labor force is shrinking. In others, like the Philippines, young people are flooding the job market in search of work.
As our chart shows, the impact of aging could potentially drag down Japan’s average annual GDP growth by 1 percentage point over the next three decades. While in India and the Philippines, which have some of the youngest populations in the region, a growing workforce could potentially increase GDP by that same amount. (more…)
IMF Spring Meetings 2017: Keeping Growth on Track
By IMFBlog
April 28, 2017
Panelists, including IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, discuss global gender challenges.
The world’s economic leaders and stakeholders came together at the 2017 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings amid a more positive outlook on the global growth, which is forecast to hit its fastest pace in five years. A clear theme running through the meetings was the need to protect the growth momentum, given policy and political uncertainties, and to help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to share in the fruits of global integration and technological progress.
More than 10,000 people took part. In addition to central bankers, finance ministers and other officials, the meetings drew around 650 journalists, 160 parliamentarians from 68 countries, and a record 850 civil society representatives, who gathered to learn, listen, and share their points of view. (more…)
Chart of the Week: Sharing the Fruits of Growth
By IMFBlog
At last week’s Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, economists and policymakers discussed ways to maintain the momentum of the global economic expansion—while also ensuring that the fruits of growth are shared more widely within their countries. Fiscal policy—government’s ability to tax and spend—has an important role to play.
The effectiveness of fiscal policy in mitigating inequality varies widely by country, as seen in our Chart of the Week. The chart shows the redistribution effect of fiscal policy before and after taxes, as measured by the change in the Gini coefficient. A Gini of zero expresses perfect equality, while a Gini of one expresses maximum inequality. (more…)
Global Policy Agenda Aims to Sustain Growth Momentum, Build Inclusiveness
By IMFblog
For the first time in years, the global economy is gaining momentum against the backdrop of a rapidly changing and uncertain world. Trade, economic integration, and technological progress have brought enormous benefits—but some groups are missing out on the rewards. Policymakers are increasingly grappling with how to ensure that these benefits are shared more broadly. Working within the multilateral framework, countries should strive for strong and more balanced growth and to provide economic opportunities for all. (more…)
Five Keys to a Smart Fiscal Policy
By Vitor Gaspar and Luc Eyraud
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
We live in a world of dramatic economic change. Rapid technological innovation has fundamentally reshaped the way we live and work. International trade and finance, migration, and worldwide communications have made countries more interconnected than ever, exposing workers to greater competition from abroad. While these changes have brought tremendous benefits, they have also led to a growing perception of uncertainty and insecurity, particularly in advanced economies.
Today’s conditions require new, more innovative solutions, which the IMF calls smart fiscal policies. By smart policies we mean policies that facilitate change, harness its growth potential, and protect people who are hurt by it. At the same time, excessive borrowing and record levels of public debt have limited the financial resources available to government. So, fiscal policy must do more with less. Fortunately, researchers and policy makers are realizing that the fiscal tool kit is broader and the tools more powerful than they thought. Five guiding principles sketch the contours of these smart fiscal policies, which are described in chapter one of the IMF’s April 2017 Fiscal Monitor. (more…)
Global Financial Stability Improves; Getting the Policy Mix Right to Sustain Gains
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
The world’s financial system has become safer and more stable since our last assessment six months ago. Economic activity has gained momentum. The outlook has improved and hopes for reflation have risen. Monetary and financial conditions remain highly accommodative. And investor optimism over the new policies under discussion in the United States has boosted asset prices. These are some of the conclusions of the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.
But it’s important for governments in the United States, Europe, China and elsewhere to follow through on investor expectations by adopting the right mix of policies. This means preventing fiscal imbalances, resisting calls for higher trade barriers, and maintaining global cooperation on regulations needed to make the financial system safer. (more…)
Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.
Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.
