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The Impact of the Gloomier Global Outlook on Latin America

The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts. In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.

Latin America—Taking the Helm

The new Latin America can provide some lessons to the advanced countries—such as saving for a rainy day, and making sure that risks in the banking system are under control. Of course, Latin America is not immune to any storms that come out of Europe. No one is. In our interconnected world, there is simply nowhere to hide. And so countries in the region should take all necessary precautions and make all needed preparations.

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