Latest Outlook for The Americas: Back on Cruise Control, But Stuck in Low Gear

2017-07-26T11:08:09+00:00July 25, 2017|

By Alejandro Werner

July 25, 2017

Versions in Español (Spanish), Português (Portuguese)

Shopping mall in Viña del Mar, Chile: Latin America is expected to recover gradually as most economies continue to face weak domestic demand (photo: Rodrigo Garrido/Newscom)

After disappointing growth over the past few years, economic activity in Latin America remains on track to recover gradually in 2017–18 as recessions in a few countries—notably Argentina and Brazil—are coming to an end. Our latest projections show the region growing by 1 percent in 2017 and 1.9 percent in 2018.

But amid low confidence, domestic demand continues to remain weak across most economies, and is expected to only recover slowly as actual output catches up to potential and internal sources of growth build strength, based on a decline in political and policy uncertainty across some major economies. Some countries in the region will need clear strategies to adjust further following a permanent loss in commodity revenues. (more…)

A Firming Recovery

2017-07-26T20:10:37+00:00July 23, 2017|

By Maurice Obstfeld

July 24, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Bahasa (Indonesian),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

(photo: IMF)

The recovery in global growth that we projected in April is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum.

As in our April forecast, the World Economic Outlook Update projects  3.5 percent growth in global output for this year and 3.6 percent for next.

The distribution of this growth around the world has changed, however: compared with last April’s projection, some economies are up but others are down, offsetting those improvements. (more…)

Uganda’s Recipe for Growth

2017-07-26T11:09:06+00:00July 21, 2017|

By IMFBlog

July 21, 2017

Construction worker in Uganda (photo: James Akena/Reuters/Newscom)

After two decades of steady growth, Uganda’s economy has slowed, and life for Ugandans is not improving fast enough.

Drought in the Horn of Africa, regional conflict, and slow credit growth have contributed to this decline, with per capita growth falling to ½ percent from an average of 5 percent for the past 20 years. (more…)

IMF Support for the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals

2017-07-21T11:55:16+00:00July 19, 2017|

By Stefania Fabrizio, Roland Kpodar, and Chris Lane

July 19, 2017

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Schoolchildren in line in Mali: Reducing the large gap between men’s and women’s education in some low-income states is one of the 2030 goals which IMF advice can address (photo: Stringer/Reuters/Newscom)

Since the adoption of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, we at the IMF have supported countries to reach their goals through policy advice, training, and financial support. Results will accrue over time, and we already see some notable progress. (more…)

Chart of the Week: A Golden Aging for Vietnam?

2017-07-20T19:45:15+00:00July 17, 2017|

By IMFBlog

July 17, 2017 

A worker in a silk factory in Dalat, Vietnam. Encouraging more women to join the workforce and shifting to higher productivity occupations will help the country overcome the impact of an aging population (photo: Gerhard Zwerger-Schoner/imageBroker/Newscom)

Vietnam’s demographic dividend is fast turning into a handicap.

For decades, working-age Vietnamese made up an expanding share of the population, boosting economic growth and helping to keep retirement and health spending in check. (more…)

Corrosive and Costly Corruption

2017-07-20T19:38:13+00:00July 14, 2017|

By IMFblog

July 14, 2017 

Corruption can hurt growth and ruin people’s economic chances (photo: Eugene Keebler/iStock)

Corruption can lead to pervasive distrust in government, generating violence, civil strife, and conflict. And the results are devastating for people.

Another problem is that corruption is costly—particularly for those who are already worse off. IMF research shows that in countries with greater levels of corruption, infant mortality and dropout rates are especially high, partly due to less spending on health and education. Reduced investment in these areas tends to hurt poor people the most, and contributes to higher inequality. (more…)

What We Have Seen and Learned 20 Years After the Asian Financial Crisis

2017-08-04T17:32:48+00:00July 13, 2017|

By Mitsuhiro Furusawa

July 13, 2017

Versions in  عربي (Arabic), Bahasa (Indonesia),  中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 
日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian)

A trader in Seoul, South Korea: Asia is the largest contributor to global growth (photo: Ryu Seung-il/Polaris/Newscom)

Asia today is the fastest-growing region in the world, and the largest contributor to global growth. It has six members of the Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies, and its economic and social achievements are well recognized.

But 20 years ago, July 1997 marked the beginning of the Asian Financial Crisis, when a combination of economic, financial and corporate problems triggered a sharp loss of confidence and capital outflows from the region’s emerging market economies. The crisis began in Thailand on July 2, when the baht’s peg to the dollar was dropped, and eventually spread to Korea, Indonesia and other countries. (more…)

Peer Pressure: Tax Competition and Developing Economies

2017-07-19T15:12:55+00:00July 11, 2017|

By Michael Keen and Jim Brumby

July 11, 2017

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A salesman checks an iphone in New Delhi, India: governments compete to attract investors with low corporate tax rates (photo: Adnan Abidi/Reuters/Newscom)

Economists tend to agree on the importance of competition for a sound market economy. So, what’s the problem when it comes to governments competing to attract investors through the tax treatment they provide? The trouble is that by competing with one another and eroding each other’s revenues, countries end up having to rely on other—typically more distortive—sources of financing or reduce much-needed public spending, or both. (more…)

Chart of the Week: Norway’s Home-Price Boom

2017-07-20T20:18:41+00:00July 10, 2017|

By IMFBlog

July 10, 2017 

A crane looms over the city of Oslo, Norway: Constraints on new construction limit the supply of housing, driving up prices (photo: Ingram Publishing/Newscom)

Think Londoners and New Yorkers have it bad when it comes to sky-high house prices? Residents of Oslo have reason to gripe, too.

House prices in the Norwegian capital are among the world’s highest, as measured by the average cost of a home relative to household median income. Prices in Oslo are perhaps the most visible symptom of a real estate boom across the oil-rich, Nordic nation of 5.2 million people.

(more…)

Transparency Pays: Emerging Markets Share More Data

2017-07-17T11:35:40+00:00July 7, 2017|

By Sangyup Choi and Stephanie Medina Cas

July 7, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), 日本語, Français (French), (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), and Русский (Russian)

On the move in Mexico City, Mexico: emerging market economies that are transparent with their data can lower their borrowing costs (photo: Edgard Garrido/Reuters/Newscom)

If sunlight is the best disinfectant, as US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis once famously said, can it also be a money maker? We have tried to quantify the financial gains from greater transparency that emerging market countries can achieve.

(more…)

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