Clearly, global uncertainties have weighed on Latin America, but most economies are nevertheless growing close to potential and operating near full capacity, as shown by record low unemployment in many economies. Demand and credit growth have moderated, but continue to expand briskly, in some countries supported by public financial institutions. Overall, Latin America stands out as a relatively bright spot in a gloomy world scene.
"Derailment of the global recovery, which was a clear and distinct danger a few months ago, has been avoided for now thanks to strong policy measures--in particular those of the European Central Bank--and strengthened governance in the euro area, and reforms and adjustment in countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece," Lagarde said. "High frequency indicators also now suggest an uptick in activity, mostly in the United States."
The world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicenter of the danger is Europe, but the rest of the world is increasingly affected.
As 2011 draws to a close, the recovery in many advanced economies is at a standstill, with some investors even exploring the implications of a potential breakup of the euro zone, and the real possibility that conditions may be worse than we saw in 2008. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's Chief Economist, draws four main lessons in his year in review.
The new Latin America can provide some lessons to the advanced countries—such as saving for a rainy day, and making sure that risks in the banking system are under control. Of course, Latin America is not immune to any storms that come out of Europe. No one is. In our interconnected world, there is simply nowhere to hide. And so countries in the region should take all necessary precautions and make all needed preparations.
As iMFdirect looks back at two years since our blog on global economics was launched in August 2009, we've compiled a list of the posts that have drawn the most attention.
Nemat Shafik, who took over as IMF Deputy Managing Director in April, says she has been surprised by the vigor of internal policy debate at the IMF. “From the outside looking in, you have the impression that the IMF is a monolith with a very single-minded view of the world. When you are inside the Fund, what is really striking is how active the internal debate is,” she says. At a time when the global economy is being buffeted by continued uncertainty in Europe, uprisings in the Middle East, and signs of overheating in some emerging market economies, there’s a lot to discuss. And, it addition to global economic problems, the IMF’s work environment has come under increased scrutiny, in particular how women are treated and its professional code of conduct. In an interview, Ms. Shafik discusses some of these issues.
When the global financial system was thrown into crisis, many policymakers were shocked to discover a gaping hole in their policy toolkit. They have since made significant progress in developing macroprudential policy measures aimed at containing system-wide risks in the financial sector. Yet progress has been uneven. Greater efforts are needed to transform this policy patchwork into an effective crisis prevention toolkit. Given the enormous economic and human cost of the recent financial debacle, we cannot afford to miss this opportunity for substantial reform. We need further collective efforts to fill the policy black hole. It is our best chance of avoiding future crises.
As G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gather in Paris this weekend, their meeting—the first ministerial level meeting of France’s G-20 presidency—comes at a critical juncture, critical for the global economy, with tensions and risks emerging that require strong policy responses, and critical for ensuring actions on international policy cooperation and reform. So, with all eyes turning to Paris, here is some recommended reading for G-20 watchers.
The international monetary system is a topic that encompasses a wide range of issues—reserve currencies, exchange rates, capital flows, and the global financial safety net, to name a few. Some are of the view that the current system works well enough. I take a less sanguine view. Certainly the world did not end with the crisis that began in 2008 and a recovery is under way. But, it is not the recovery we wanted—it is uneven, unemployment is not really going down, there are widening inequalities, and global imbalances are back. Reform of the international monetary system may be wide-ranging and complex. But concrete reforms are needed to achieve the kind of well-balanced and sustainable recovery that the world needs, and to help prevent the next crisis.