Blanchard Sees Continued Two-Speed Recovery in 2011

Blanchard says the two-speed global economic recovery is likely to dominate 2011, with weak growth in advanced economies barely enough to bring down unemployment and emerging markets facing the challenges of success, including how to avoid overheating and handle strong capital inflows.

A Marriage Made in Heaven or Hell: Monetary and Financial Stability

Price stability has long been enshrined as the main objective of monetary policy, and, with that, gone are the days of high and volatile inflation. Monetary stability seems almost a given today. However, the global financial crisis revealed that, by focusing on price stability, monetary policy frameworks might not always sound the alarm when financial stability comes under threat. In his latest blog, José Viñals reflects on the monetary policy lessons that emerged from the global financial crisis and the need for a "happy marriage" between the goals of price stability and financial stability.

Continuing the Momentum—Asia’s Updated Economic Outlook

Asia’s leadership of the global recovery is continuing unabated. The IMF now expects GDP in Asia to grow by about 7¾ percent in 2010 (up about ½ a percentage point from what was envisaged in April), before easing to about 6¾ percent in 2011. And, even though the downside risks to growth have intensified, the region is well equipped to handle them.

Global Economy: Continuing Recovery But Clouds on the Horizon

The International Monetary Fund remains cautiously optimistic about the pace of recovery, but there are clear dangers and policy challenges ahead. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard says how Europe deals with fiscal and financial problems, how advanced countries proceed with fiscal consolidation, and how emerging countries rebalance their economies, will determine the outcome.

Ten Commandments for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies

We offer ten commandments so that fiscal strategies can be designed to make them consistent with both short-term and long-term growth requirements. Put simply, what advanced countries need is clarity of intent, an appropriate calibration of fiscal targets, and adequate structural reforms. With a little help from monetary policy, and from their (emerging market) friends.

Asia’s Economy to Grow by 50% in Five Years

The new issue of the IMF’s Finance & Development magazine explores how the region is moving into a leadership role in the world economy. Anoop Singh, Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, says that, based on expected trends, within five years Asia’s economy will be about 50 percent larger than it is today and be comparable in size to the economies of the United States and Europe.

It’s Hip to Be Square—Why Good Financial Sector Supervision Is Important

As the financial crisis taught us, supervision is incredibly important. Countries with the same set of rules had very different experiences during the crisis. Why? There are clearly many reasons but one of them is “better supervision.” After all, rules are only as good as their implementation. In some countries, the financial supervisor became the unsung hero of the crisis. One might say “It’s hip to be square!”

World Faces Serious New Economic Challenges

We find ourselves at an important new stage of the crisis. A global depression has been averted. The world economy is recovering, and recovering better than we had previously thought likely. This is certainly welcome news. But new---and no less formidable—challenges have presented themselves.

IMF Sees Financial Risks Still Elevated

Global financial risks remain elevated: financial stability has not been secured, as the recovery is still fragile, and the repair of consumer and financial balance sheets is still ongoing. Furthermore, there are concerns over rising sovereign risks related to the buildup of public debt that need to be carefully monitored and addressed.

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