Volatility Strikes Back

2019-03-14T11:58:02+00:00May 3, 2018|

By Sergei Antoshin, Fabio Cortes, Will Kerry and Thomas Piontek

May 3, 2018 

Investors who bet on continued low volatility suffered steep losses (photo: Richard B. Levine/Newscom).

The bouts of volatility in early February and late March that spooked investors were confined to equity markets. Nevertheless, they illustrate the potential for sudden market moves to expose fragilities in the financial system more broadly.

With central banks in advanced economies set to normalize their monetary policies just as trade and geopolitical tensions flare up, economic and policy uncertainty may rise and financial conditions may tighten abruptly. (more…)

Bringing Down High Debt

2019-03-14T12:19:57+00:00April 18, 2018|

By Vitor Gaspar and Laura Jaramillo

April 18, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese),  Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

High debt makes governments’ financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment (photo: NYSE-LUCAS JACKSON-REUTERS Newscom).

Global debt hit a new record high of $164 trillion in 2016, the equivalent of 225 percent of global GDP. Both private and public debt have surged over the past decade. High debt makes government’s financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. It also limits a government’s ability to provide support to the economy in the event of a downturn or a financial crisis.

Countries should use the window of opportunity afforded by the economic upswing to strengthen the state of their fiscal affairs. The April 2018 Fiscal Monitor explores how countries can reduce government deficits and debt in a growth-friendly way.

(more…)

A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Global Financial System

2019-03-14T12:22:14+00:00April 18, 2018|

By Tobias Adrian

April 18, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese),  Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),   Português (Portuguese),  Русский (Russian)

An unexpected increase in inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates faster than currently anticipated, roiling financial markets (photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom).

The current economic environment remains favorable, but short-term risks to global financial stability have increased in the past six months, as a result of a spike in stock-market volatility in February and continuing investor concerns about rising geopolitical and trade tensions. Looking ahead, the odds of a downturn remain elevated, and there’s even a small chance of a global economic contraction over the medium-term. (more…)

The Economic Scars of Crises and Recessions

2019-03-14T13:32:16+00:00March 21, 2018|

By Valerie Cerra and Sweta C. Saxena

March 21, 2018

Version in  日本語 (Japanese), Português  (Portuguese)

New study finds that all types of recessions lead to permanent losses in output and welfare (photo: Peshkov/iStock by GettyImages).

Economic recessions are typically described as short-term periods of negative economic growth. According to the traditional business cycle view, output moves up and down around its long-term upward trend and after a recession, it recovers to its pre-recession trend. Our new study casts doubt on this traditional view and shows that all types of recessions—including those arising from external shocks and small domestic macroeconomic policy mistakes—lead to permanent losses in output and welfare. (more…)

Communications Can Help to Get Financial Stability Off the Ground

2019-03-15T10:25:33+00:00February 22, 2018|

By Olga Stankova

February 22, 2018 

Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Policy and communications—two wings to fly to success (photo: iStock by Getty Images).

When the capacity to communicate effectively on financial stability policies is not there, it is like trying to fly a plane with one wing missing. It takes more than sound policy making. Communications is an essential part of the job.

Following the global financial crisis, many countries redoubled their efforts to build stronger financial stability frameworks. Central banks and supervisory agencies have enhanced their capacity to identify and monitor systemic risks in the financial system and have developed new policies to mitigate them. (more…)

Latin America and the Caribbean in 2018: An Economic Recovery in the Making

2019-03-15T11:48:55+00:00January 25, 2018|

By Alejandro Werner

January 25, 2018

Versions in Español (Spanish) and Português (Portuguese)

Latin America’s economic recovery is expected to benefit from higher commodity prices (photo: iStock by Getty Images)

Recent trends in the world economy and financial markets are good news for Latin America. Global growth and trade are on an upswing, and we expect the momentum to continue in 2018. Stronger commodity prices have also helped the region rebound. (more…)

The Year in Review: Global Economy in 5 Charts

2019-03-15T13:00:47+00:00December 17, 2017|

By Oya Celasun, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Maurice Obstfeld

December 18, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish),  Français (French),  日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian)

On the economic front, 2017 is ending on a high note (photo: allstars/shutterstock).

It has been a tumultuous year marked by natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and deep political divisions in many countries.

On the economic front, however, 2017 is ending on a high note, with GDP continuing to accelerate over much of the world in the broadest cyclical upswing since the start of the decade. (more…)

Fed Tightening May Squeeze Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

2019-03-15T13:09:37+00:00December 14, 2017|

By Robin Koepke

December 14, 2017

Versions in  中文 (Chinese),  Español (Spanish),  Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian)

Derivatives traders in Singapore: Tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy is likely to reduce overseas purchases of emerging market stocks and bonds (photo: Caro/Rupert Oberhaeuser/Newscom)

A key question facing global investors today is what impact the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalization process will have on capital flows to emerging markets. The IMF’s new model estimates show that normalization—raising the policy interest rate and shrinking the balance sheet—will likely reduce portfolio inflows by about $70 billion over the next two years, which compares with average annual inflows of $240 billion since 2010. (more…)

Understanding and Managing Financial Interdependence

2019-03-15T09:13:26+00:00November 8, 2017|

By Maurice Obstfeld

November 8, 2017

(photo: AlexLMX and David Hunt/iStock)

The 18th Annual Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference last week opened with Managing Director Christine Lagarde noting the ebb and flow of capital movements into emerging market and developing economies since the turn of the millennium. She asked three questions at the heart of the discussion, and to which speakers returned consistently during the conference: (more…)

Global Economic Upswing Creates a Window of Opportunity

2019-03-15T14:39:30+00:00October 10, 2017|

By Maurice Obstfeld

October 10, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

 

The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace. The picture is very different from early last year, when the world economy faced faltering growth and financial market turbulence. We see an accelerating cyclical upswing boosting Europe, China, Japan, and the United States, as well as emerging Asia.

The latest World Economic Outlook has therefore upgraded its global growth projections to 3.6 percent for this year and 3.7 percent for next—in both cases 0.1 percentage point above our previous forecasts, and well above 2016’s global growth rate of 3.2 percent, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis. (more…)

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