Chart of the Week: Sharing the Fruits of Growth

By IMFBlog

At last week’s Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, economists and policymakers discussed ways to maintain the momentum of the global economic expansion—while also ensuring that the fruits of growth are shared more widely within their countries. Fiscal policy—government’s ability to tax and spend—has an important role to play.

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in mitigating inequality varies widely by country, as seen in our Chart of the Week. The chart shows the redistribution effect of fiscal policy before and after taxes, as measured by the change in the Gini coefficient. A Gini of zero expresses perfect equality, while a Gini of one expresses maximum inequality. (more…)

Global Financial Stability Improves; Getting the Policy Mix Right to Sustain Gains

By Tobias Adrian

Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

The world’s financial system has become safer and more stable since our last assessment six months ago. Economic activity has gained momentum. The outlook has improved and hopes for reflation have risen. Monetary and financial conditions remain highly accommodative. And investor optimism over the new policies under discussion in the United States has boosted asset prices. These are some of the conclusions of the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report

But it’s important for governments in the United States, Europe, China and elsewhere to follow through on investor expectations by adopting the right mix of policies. This means preventing fiscal imbalances, resisting calls for higher trade barriers, and maintaining global cooperation on regulations needed to make the financial system safer. (more…)

Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now

By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.

Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.

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The Hollowing Out of Middle-Skilled Labor Share of Income

By Mai Dao, Mitali Das, Zsoka Koczan, and Weicheng Lian

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Imagine how a typical factory today operates in many advanced economies. There are no longer many workers lined up along assembly belts. Instead, there are only a few of them—mostly likely engineers—looking at screens of highly sophisticated equipment that does the assembly once done by humans. With technological advancement constantly driving down the cost of capital, firms are increasingly replacing workers with machines.

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Services Exports Open a New Path to Prosperity

By Prakash Loungani, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang

Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), and Русский (Russian)

Services, which already account for 50 percent of world income and 70 percent of employment, are also becoming an important part of international trade. Services exports—accounting for nearly one fourth of total exports—have come to play a central role in the global economy, thanks in large part to advances in technology. (more…)

Union of Labor and Growth

By IMFBlog

John Evans is Head of the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which represents some 65 million organized workers worldwide. In this podcast, he says that the labor market works much like any other market, driven by supply and demand, and the latter is very dependent on how well the economy is doing.  (more…)

Questioning Accepted Truths

camilla-andersen-may2015By Camilla Lund Andersen

2016 has been a year of political upheaval, as accepted truths about the power of globalization to transform lives and lift millions out of poverty are being questioned by electorates in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere. No longer prepared to take experts and elites at their word, many voters appear to be rejecting the adverse consequences of globalization by casting their ballot for antiestablishment messages and candidates.

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Can Raising Japan’s Minimum Wage Accelerate Wage Growth?

By Luc Everaert and Giovanni Ganelli

Version in 日本語 (Japanese)

Japan’s minimum wage is 798 JPY ($6.52) per hour, lower than many other advanced countries, including the United States, and among the lowest relative to the average wage (see chart). For a country that needs consumers to boost spending to pull the economy out of 15 years of deflation and reinvigorate growth, a hike in wages across the board can go a long way. (more…)

The Evidence that Growth Creates Jobs: A New Look at an Old Relationship

By iMFdirect

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Français (French), and Español (Spanish)

The link between jobs and economic growth is not always a straight line for countries, but that doesn’t mean it’s broken.

Economists track the relationship between jobs and growth using Okun’s Law, which says that higher growth leads to lower unemployment.

New research from the IMF looks at Okun’s Law and asks, based on the evidence, will growth create jobs? The findings show a striking variation across countries in how employment responds to GDP growth over the course of a year. (more…)

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