The Trillion Dollar Question: Who Owns Emerging Market Government Debt

2017-04-14T02:09:51+00:00March 5, 2014|

By Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda

(Version in EspañolFrançaisPortuguêsРусский中文 and 日本語)

There are a trillion reasons to care about who owns emerging market debt.  That’s how much money global investors have poured into in these government bonds in recent years —$1 trillion.  Who owns it, for how long and why it changes over time can shed light on the risks; a sudden reversal of money flowing out of a country can hurt.  Shifts in the investor base also can have implications for a government’s borrowing costs.

What investors do next is a big question for emerging markets, and our new analysis takes some of the guesswork out of who owns your debt.   The more you know your investors, the better you understand the potential risks and how to deal with them.

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The Lessons of the North Atlantic Crisis for Economic Theory and Policy

2017-04-15T13:35:56+00:00May 3, 2013|

Joseph_E._StiglitzGuest post by: Joseph E. Stiglitz
Columbia University, New York, and co-host of the Conference on Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons

(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, and Русский)

In analyzing the most recent financial crisis, we can benefit somewhat from the misfortune of recent decades. The approximately 100 crises that have occurred during the last 30 years—as liberalization policies became  dominant—have given us a wealth of experience and mountains of data.  If we look over a 150 year period, we have an even richer data set.

With a century and half of clear, detailed information on crisis after crisis, the burning question is not How did this happen? but How did we ignore that long history, and think that we had solved the problems with the business cycle? Believing that we had made big economic fluctuations a thing of the past took a remarkable amount of hubris.

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Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

2017-04-15T13:36:04+00:00April 29, 2013|

blanchBy Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in عربي中文FrançaisРусский, and Español)

The IMF has just hosted a second conference devoted to rethinking macroeconomic policy in the wake of the crisis. After two days of fascinating presentations and discussions, I am certain of one thing:  this is unlikely to be our last conference on the subject.

Rethinking and reforms are both taking place.  But we still do not know the final destination, be it for the redefinition of monetary policy, or the contours of financial regulation, or the role of macroprudential tools. We have a general sense of direction, but we are largely navigating by sight.

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The World’s Three-Speed Economic Recovery

2017-04-15T13:54:26+00:00April 16, 2013|

WEOBy Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in عربي , 中文, 日本語, Русский, and Español)

The main theme of our latest outlook is one that you have now heard for a few days: we have moved from a two-speed recovery to a three-speed recovery.

Emerging market and developing economies are still going strong, but in advanced economies, there appears to be a growing bifurcation between the United States on the one hand, and the Euro area on the other.

This is reflected in our forecasts. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is forecast to reach 5.3% in 2013, and 5.7% in 2014. Growth in the United States is forecast to be 1.9% in 2013, and 3.0% in 2014. In contrast, growth in the Euro area is forecast to be -0.3% in 2013, and only 1.1% in 2014.

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Moving Beyond Crisis Management in the West Bank and Gaza

2017-04-15T13:56:35+00:00February 28, 2013|

By Oussama Kanaan, Udo Kock, and Mariusz Sumlinski

(Versions in  عربي)

It was an early spring morning in East Jerusalem in 2011, and we were wrapping up our two-week mission with a presentation to donor representatives on the Palestinian economy’s health. Our audience appeared encouraged by our assessment of performance over the previous three years (2008–10): the economy had been recovering strongly, supported by generous aid and an easing of Israeli restrictions on movement and trade.

And the Palestinian Authority had made impressive progress in institution-building, which alongside prudent fiscal management, had enhanced public-sector efficiency, reduced wasteful expenditure, and enabled a reduction in its recurrent budget deficit from US$1.7 billion in 2008 to US$1.1 billion in 2010.

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The Power of Cooperation

2017-04-15T14:00:08+00:00December 21, 2012|

In an article in the new issue of Finance & Development magazine, President Bill Clinton shares his experience working with governments, business, and civil society as part of his Clinton Global Initiative. He says they are making the most progress in places where people have formed networks of creative cooperation where stakeholders come together to do things better, faster and cheaper than any could alone.

March of the Billionaires

2017-04-15T14:00:38+00:00December 1, 2012|

From billionaires Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett to Aliko Dangote and George Soros, the titans of capitalism are backing good causes with their cash. By financing new vaccines, championing maternal health, supporting learning, building libraries, or buying up Amazon rain forest to protect the environment, philanthropists are backing innovations and new approaches that are changing lives and building dreams. The new issue of Finance & Development magazine looks at the world of targeted giving and social entrepreneurship.

Tharman Sees “Greater Global Policy Resolve”

2017-04-15T14:01:15+00:00October 14, 2012|

The world is now in a much better situation than six months ago when it comes to policy solutions, according to Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance , who is Chair of the IMF's policy-setting committee, the IMFC, speaking about the outcome of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Tokyo.

Promoting Multilateral Solutions for a Globalized World

2017-04-15T14:04:00+00:00August 30, 2012|

The new issue of Finance & Development magazine looks at different aspects of interconnectedness. Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, argues that what he terms the global village increasingly requires global solutions to big emerging problems such as climate change. Kemal Derviş, former head of the United Nations Development Programme who is now a vice president at the Brookings Institution, looks at three fundamental shifts in the global economy that are leading to major adjustments in the balance between east and west.

Economics – New Links for Students from the IMF

2017-04-15T14:07:47+00:00May 20, 2012|

The IMF's Finance & Development magazine has recently published two helpful online compilations of articles that may be useful to students and those interested in economic issues. They are rich collections of material that are totally free!! They are a collection of profiles of leading economists and some clearly written explanations of fundamental economic terms.

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