Slowly but Surely, a Farewell to Fossil Fuels

2018-01-25T15:34:07+00:00January 18th, 2018|

By IMFBlog

January 19, 2018

Repairs to an oil rig in North Dakota, United States: Eighty percent of the world’s energy consumption is based on fossil fuels (photo: North Dakota/Jim Gehrz/MCT/Newscom).

This has never happened before. Never. Three years of stagnating carbon dioxide emissions coupled with relatively healthy global economic growth. In this podcast , International Energy Agency Chief Economist Laszlo Varro talks about leaving fossil fuels in the past. (more…)

Strength in Numbers: A Safety Net to Prevent Crises in the Global Economy

2018-01-17T10:52:24+00:00December 19th, 2017|

By IMFBlog

December 19, 2017

Version in عربي (Arabic);  中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish),  Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian)

Walking on a safety net: countries need insurance in bad economic and financial times (photo: Vivek Prakash/Newscom).

If you are lucky, when the going gets tough, you have a group of people you can rely on to help you through a crisis. Countries are no different—a safety net to help them in bad economic and financial times can make the difference in peoples’ lives.   (more…)

Propping Up the Chinese Economy: Credit versus Fiscal Stimulus

2017-12-18T18:32:04+00:00December 12th, 2017|

By Sophia Chen and Lev Ratnovski

December 13, 2017

Version in 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), 日本語  (Japanese)

Construction work Qingyuan , Guangdong, China : Fiscal stimulus is a powerful tool for growth (photo: Imagine China/Newscom).

Credit booms are addictive. Credit supports growth and the perception of wealth. Yet credit booms are risky, and are often followed by financial busts and economic slowdowns. The challenge is taming credit without hurting growth. (more…)

Chart of the Week: The Walking Debt: Resolving China’s Zombies

2018-01-16T17:22:36+00:00December 11th, 2017|

By IMFBlog

December 11, 2017

Version in 中文 (Chinese), 日本語 (Japanese)

IMF research shows that resolving China’s zombie firms can boost productivity and long-term growth prospects (photo: DNY59/iStock by Getty Images).

China’s “zombies” are non-viable firms that are adding to the country’s rising corporate debt problem, and are bad business. Zombie firms are highly indebted and incur persistent losses, but continue to operate with the support of local governments or soft loans by banks—adding very little value to economic prospects. China has already made a lot of progress in resolving these firms, and should continue its efforts to send the zombies packing. (more…)

Improving Financial Stability in China

2018-01-16T17:21:07+00:00December 6th, 2017|

By Ratna Sahay and James P. Walsh

December 6, 2017

Version in  عربي (Arabic), 中文(Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian)

A man walks past a bank branch in Beijing: China’s leaders have made financial stability one of their top priorities (photo: Stephen Shaver/UPI/Newscom).

China’s leaders have made financial stability one of their top priorities. Given the size and importance of the Chinese market, with the world’s largest banks and second-largest stock market, that is welcome news for China and the world. The financial system permeates virtually all aspects of economic activity, having played a key role in facilitating rapid economic growth and in sharply reducing poverty rates.

China is moving from the world’s factory floor toward  a more modern, consumer-driven economy. During this transition, however, some tensions have emerged in the financial sector. (more…)

Catch-Up Prospects in Emerging Economies: A Glass One Quarter Empty

2017-11-20T12:18:17+00:00November 6th, 2017|

By IMFBlog

November 6, 2017

Versions in  عربي (Arabic), 中文(Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian)

A closer look at per capita incomes by country paints a different and more nuanced picture (photo: Pavel1964/iStock).

Per capita incomes in emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow by about 2 percentage points faster per year than advanced economies between 2017 and 2022. The implication is that the gap in income levels between the two groups of countries is narrowing. However, a closer look at per capita incomes by country paints a different and more nuanced picture.  (more…)

Off the Charts: Your Favorite 5 Charts

2017-08-28T09:27:12+00:00August 28th, 2017|

By IMFBlog

August 28, 2017

(photo: iStock by Getty Images).

Much as sailors use nautical charts to determine their location at sea, economists use charts to show who we are, where we are, and where we might be going.

In the Spring, we began our Chart of the Week feature on the blog: snapshots in time and over time of how economies work to help illuminate the uncharted waters ahead for the global economy.

Here are our top five charts of the week, based on readership:

(more…)

Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation

2017-07-31T12:29:23+00:00July 31st, 2017|

By IMFBlog

July 31, 2017 

An electric car recharges at a meter in London: The UK is the latest country to announce plans to end fossil fuel vehicle sales by 2040 (photo: Sasha Fox Walters/iStock by Getty Images)

The switch from horses to automobiles in the 20th century paved the way for the rise of oil-based transportation and energy use. Today, electric vehicle ownership is picking up speed. Greater affordability of electric vehicles will likely steer us away from our current sources of energy for transportation, and toward more environmentally friendly technology. And that can happen sooner than you think.

Our Chart of the Week from a recent IMF working paper shows that the transition away from motor vehicles could happen in the next 10 to 25 years, based on parallel shifts in the 20th century. Patterns observed in the early days of the horse-car transition closely resemble present-day electric vehicle adoption rates. Between 2011 and 2015, the average annual growth rate of electric vehicle ownership was 120 percent. This is, in fact, slightly faster growth than that of motor vehicles during a comparable timeframe in the past. Using the horse-car parallel, the paper forecasts that by 2040 motor vehicles could mostly disappear in advanced economies, and could comprise about a third of the fleet of all cars in emerging market and developing economies. (more…)

A Firming Recovery

2017-07-26T20:10:37+00:00July 23rd, 2017|

By Maurice Obstfeld

July 24, 2017

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Bahasa (Indonesian),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

(photo: IMF)

The recovery in global growth that we projected in April is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum.

As in our April forecast, the World Economic Outlook Update projects  3.5 percent growth in global output for this year and 3.6 percent for next.

The distribution of this growth around the world has changed, however: compared with last April’s projection, some economies are up but others are down, offsetting those improvements. (more…)

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