August 28, 2017
Much as sailors use nautical charts to determine their location at sea, economists use charts to show who we are, where we are, and where we might be going.
In the Spring, we began our Chart of the Week feature on the blog: snapshots in time and over time of how economies work to help illuminate the uncharted waters ahead for the global economy.
Here are our top five charts of the week, based on readership:
August 10, 2017
Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, posing challenges to the nation’s financial system. How Japan copes could guide other advanced economies in Asia and Europe that are grappling with the same trends but are at an earlier phase of similar demographic developments.
August 9, 2017
Version in Français (French)
Fragile states face more obstacles to growth than most countries. Their per-capita GDP is less than half of most other low-income countries, and their economies are more volatile. Many are in conflict or going through a natural disaster, or just emerging from these. Our study is based on 39 countries, and since completed, the number of fragile states has increased to 43.
To grow, a country needs tax policies and tax administration, laws and institutions to formulate and execute a budget, and trained staff to implement fiscal policies, among other factors. Our preliminary results show that fragile states that have received technical assistance, also have improved their fiscal performance.
August 4, 2017
July 31, 2017
The switch from horses to automobiles in the 20th century paved the way for the rise of oil-based transportation and energy use. Today, electric vehicle ownership is picking up speed. Greater affordability of electric vehicles will likely steer us away from our current sources of energy for transportation, and toward more environmentally friendly technology. And that can happen sooner than you think.
Our Chart of the Week from a recent IMF working paper shows that the transition away from motor vehicles could happen in the next 10 to 25 years, based on parallel shifts in the 20th century. Patterns observed in the early days of the horse-car transition closely resemble present-day electric vehicle adoption rates. Between 2011 and 2015, the average annual growth rate of electric vehicle ownership was 120 percent. This is, in fact, slightly faster growth than that of motor vehicles during a comparable timeframe in the past. Using the horse-car parallel, the paper forecasts that by 2040 motor vehicles could mostly disappear in advanced economies, and could comprise about a third of the fleet of all cars in emerging market and developing economies. Continue reading “Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation” »
July 17, 2017
Vietnam’s demographic dividend is fast turning into a handicap.
For decades, working-age Vietnamese made up an expanding share of the population, boosting economic growth and helping to keep retirement and health spending in check. Continue reading “Chart of the Week: A Golden Aging for Vietnam?” »
July 13, 2017
Asia today is the fastest-growing region in the world, and the largest contributor to global growth. It has six members of the Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies, and its economic and social achievements are well recognized.
But 20 years ago, July 1997 marked the beginning of the Asian Financial Crisis, when a combination of economic, financial and corporate problems triggered a sharp loss of confidence and capital outflows from the region’s emerging market economies. The crisis began in Thailand on July 2, when the baht’s peg to the dollar was dropped, and eventually spread to Korea, Indonesia and other countries. Continue reading “What We Have Seen and Learned 20 Years After the Asian Financial Crisis” »
July 7, 2017
If sunlight is the best disinfectant, as US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis once famously said, can it also be a money maker? We have tried to quantify the financial gains from greater transparency that emerging market countries can achieve.
July 5, 2017
Nearly sixty years ago, a little-known band called the Beatles arrived in Hamburg, got a haircut, recorded their first song, and found their sound.
Taking a cue from the Fab Four, world leaders gathering for the Group of Twenty Summit this week can make the most of their time in Hamburg—and leave Germany with a sound plan to strengthen global growth.