Posts by IMFBlog | IMF Blog

Shining a Bright Light into the Dark Corners of Weak Governance and Corruption

April 22, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), baˈhasa indoneˈsia (Indonesian), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Anti-corruption strategies require broader regulatory and institutional reforms (Kritchanut/iStock).

The IMF Executive Board has just endorsed a new framework for stepping up engagement on governance and corruption in our member countries. Let me talk about why this is important and what it means for our work.

Continue reading “Shining a Bright Light into the Dark Corners of Weak Governance and Corruption” »

By IMFBlog| April 22nd, 2018|Advanced Economies, corruption, Financial regulation, Global Governance, Government, inclusive growth, Inequality, Investment, Politics, Spring Meetings, structural reforms, taxation|

Bringing Down High Debt

By Vitor Gaspar and Laura Jaramillo

April 18, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

High debt makes governments’ financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment (photo: NYSE-LUCAS JACKSON-REUTERS Newscom).

Global debt hit a new record high of $164 trillion in 2016, the equivalent of 225 percent of global GDP. Both private and public debt have surged over the past decade. High debt makes government’s financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. It also limits a government’s ability to provide support to the economy in the event of a downturn or a financial crisis.

Countries should use the window of opportunity afforded by the economic upswing to strengthen the state of their fiscal affairs. The April 2018 Fiscal Monitor explores how countries can reduce government deficits and debt in a growth-friendly way.

Continue reading “Bringing Down High Debt” »

By IMFBlog| April 18th, 2018|Advanced Economies, banking, China, credit, developing countries, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal, Fiscal discipline, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Government, growth, income, Low-income countries, Politics, Public debt, recession, Reform, taxation, U.S., Uncategorized|

A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Global Financial System

By Tobias Adrian

April 18, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

An unexpected increase in inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates faster than currently anticipated, roiling financial markets (photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom).

The current economic environment remains favorable, but short-term risks to global financial stability have increased in the past six months, as a result of a spike in stock-market volatility in February and continuing investor concerns about rising geopolitical and trade tensions. Looking ahead, the odds of a downturn remain elevated, and there’s even a small chance of a global economic contraction over the medium-term. Continue reading “A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Global Financial System” »

By IMFBlog| April 18th, 2018|banking, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund|

Global Economy: Good News for Now but Trade Tensions a Threat

By Maurice Obstfeld

April 17, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Container ship in Colombo, Sri Lanka: the recent escalating tensions over trade present a growing risk to the global economy (photo: STRINGER/REUTERS/Newscom).

The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of a similarly broad-based conflict over trade presents a jarring picture.

Three months ago, we updated our global growth forecast for this year and next substantially, to 3.9 percent in both years. That forecast is being borne out by continuing strong performance in the euro area, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which grew above expectations last year. We also project near-term improvements for several other emerging market and developing economies, including some recovery in commodity exporters. Continuing to power the world economy’s upswing are accelerations in investment and, notably, in trade. Continue reading “Global Economy: Good News for Now but Trade Tensions a Threat” »

By IMFBlog| April 17th, 2018|Advanced Economies, China, commodities, developing countries, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, exports, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, labor force, monetary policy, Spring Meetings, structural reforms, trade, U.S.|

An Even-handed Approach to Crypto-Assets

By Christine Lagarde

April 16, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Healthcare companies are studying how to use the technology behind crypto assets to maintain confidential medical data (BSIphotos/Newscom).

The dizzying gyrations of crypto-assets such as Bitcoin invite comparisons with the tulip mania that swept Holland in the 17th century and the recent dot-com bubble. With more than 1,600 crypto-assets in circulation, it seems inevitable that many will not survive the process of creative destruction.

In my blog last month, I looked at the dark side of crypto-assets, including their potential use for money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Here, I want to examine the promise they offer. A judicious look at crypto-assets should lead us to neither crypto-condemnation nor crypto-euphoria. Continue reading “An Even-handed Approach to Crypto-Assets” »

By IMFBlog| April 16th, 2018|Advanced Economies, banking, capital markets, commodities, Corporate Risk, Economic research, Financial markets, Financing, Global Governance, Globalization, Investment, technology|

Fiscal Rules: Make them Easy to Love and Hard to Cheat

By Xavier Debrun, Luc Eyraud, Andrew Hodge, Victor Lledo, Catherine Pattillo, Abdelhak Senhadji

April 13, 2018

Versions in Español (Spanish), Français (French), Português (Portuguese)

The national debt clock in New York City: a fiscal rule, like the debt ceiling, should not be set too low or too high. (photo: Frances M. Roberts/Newscom)

Rules to contain lavish government deficits are most effective if countries design them to be simple, flexible, and enforceable in the face of changing economic circumstances.

In new analysis, we look at fiscal rules in over 90 countries and, based on their experiences, find that the rules put in the place over the last three decades often were too complex, overly rigid, and difficult to enforce. Continue reading “Fiscal Rules: Make them Easy to Love and Hard to Cheat” »

By IMFBlog| April 13th, 2018|Advanced Economies, aging, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Environment, Europe, Finance, Financing, Fiscal, Fiscal discipline, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt, South America, Spring Meetings, taxation, technology, U.S., Uncategorized|

The Digital Gamble: New Technology Transforms Fiscal Policy

By Vitor Gaspar and Geneviève Verdier

April 12, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Traffic in Singapore: the city uses digital technology for road pricing to manage road congestion congestion (photo: Kua Chee Siong/ SPH/Newscom)..

In Rwanda, digitally-monitored drones deliver blood supplies to hospitals. In Estonia, it takes five minutes to file taxes and 99 percent of government services are available online. Singapore was the first city to implement electronic road pricing to manage congestion. The world is becoming digital, and reliable, timely, and accurate information is available at the push of a button. Governments are following suit, using digital tools for tax and expenditure policy, public financial management, and public service delivery. Continue reading “The Digital Gamble: New Technology Transforms Fiscal Policy” »

By IMFBlog| April 12th, 2018|Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, capital markets, China, developing countries, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial markets, financial policy, Financial regulation, Financing, Fiscal, Fiscal discipline, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Globalization, Government, IMF, India, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Japan, LICs, Low-income countries, monetary policy, Politics, Reform, Spring Meetings, taxation, technology, trade, U.S., Uncategorized|

Risky Business: Reading Credit Flows for Crisis Signals

By Claudio Raddatz Kiefer and Jérôme Vandenbussche

April 10, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

The odds of a severe economic downturn are higher when a growing portion of credit flows to riskier firms, according to a new IMF study (Photo: Pali 137/ iStock by Getty Images).

Supervisors who monitor the health of the financial system know that a rapid buildup of debt during an economic boom can spell trouble down the road. That is why they keep a close eye on the overall volume of credit in the economy. When companies go on a borrowing spree, supervisors and regulators may decide to put the brakes on credit growth.

Trouble is, measuring credit volume overlooks an important question: how much of that additional money flows to riskier companies – which are more likely to default in times of trouble—compared with more creditworthy firms? The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report seeks to fill that gap by constructing measures of the riskiness of credit allocation, which should help policy makers spot clouds on the economic horizon. Continue reading “Risky Business: Reading Credit Flows for Crisis Signals” »

By IMFBlog| April 10th, 2018|Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, banking, capital flows, capital markets, China, commodities, Corporate Risk, credit, currency, developing countries, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Financial markets, Financial regulation, Global Governance, Government, growth, IMF, infrastructure, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Investment, jobs, monetary policy, Public debt, Reform, U.S.|

For Home Prices in London, Check the Tokyo Listings

By Claudio Raddatz Kiefer and Jane Dokko

April, 10, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic); 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese)

Hong Kong viewed from Victoria Peak. House prices across countries and cities are increasingly moving in tandem (Photo: Fraser Hall/Robert Harding/Newscom).

If house prices are rising in Tokyo, are they also going up in London?

Increasingly, the answer is yes.

In recent decades, house prices around the world have shown a growing tendency to move in the same direction at the same time. What accounts for this phenomenon, and what are the implications for the world economy? These are questions that IMF economists explore in Chapter 3 of the latest Global Financial Stability Report. Continue reading “For Home Prices in London, Check the Tokyo Listings” »

Wanted: Policies to Encourage and Enable Work in Advanced Economies

By Francesco Grigoli, Zsóka Kóczán, and Petia Topalova

April 9, 2018

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian)

Aging may slow economic growth in advanced economies (photo: Zero Creatives Cultura/Newscom).

Population growth in advanced economies is slowing, life expectancy is rising, and the number of elderly people is soaring. Because older workers participate less in the labor market, the aging of the population could slow growth and, in many cases, threaten the sustainability of social security systems. But, as our research in Chapter 2 of the April 2018 World Economic Outlook shows, there is considerable scope for policies to mitigate the forces of aging by enabling those who are willing to work to do so. Continue reading “Wanted: Policies to Encourage and Enable Work in Advanced Economies” »

By IMFBlog| April 9th, 2018|Advanced Economies, aging, commodities, Economic outlook, Economic research, education, Employment, Global Governance, jobs, labor force, labor markets, productivity, Spring Meetings|

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About IMFBlog

Bringing Down High Debt

A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Global Financial System

Global Economy: Good News for Now but Trade Tensions a Threat

An Even-handed Approach to Crypto-Assets

Fiscal Rules: Make them Easy to Love and Hard to Cheat

The Digital Gamble: New Technology Transforms Fiscal Policy

Risky Business: Reading Credit Flows for Crisis Signals

For Home Prices in London, Check the Tokyo Listings