Perhaps first among the many lessons of 2020 is that the notion of so‑called black swan events is not some remote worry. These purportedly once‑in‑a‑generation events are occurring with increasing frequency.
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Zaijin Zhan is a Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s Statistics Department, where he works on fiscal and public sector debt statistics. Since joining the IMF, he has worked extensively on IMF lending and surveillance policy issues, and a range of low-income and emerging market economies, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Ethiopia, Ghana, and South Africa. His research interests include fiscal transparency and sovereign debt issues.
Daniel Gurara is an Economist at the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF. His research interest falls broadly under applied macro and microeconomics. He has published in leading international journals including in the American Economic Review and Journal of International and Finance. Previously, he was a Principal Research Economist at the African Development Bank and, prior to that, an Assistant Professor of Economics at Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
May 31, 2018
While globalization is generally good for economic growth, the benefits are subject to diminishing marginal returns, according to a recent study of 147 countries from 1970 to 2014. The study looks at how globalization affects the distribution of incomes across and within countries. (more…)
March 20, 2018
Climate change is one of the greatest threats facing our planet. Its negative effects on health, the biosphere, and labor productivity are already being felt throughout the world. Aware of the danger, communities, households, and governments have started taking measures to reduce their exposures and vulnerability to weather shocks and climate change. Our study in the World Economic Outlook shows that public investment in adaptation can partially reduce the economic costs of severe weather events. (more…)
February 28, 2018
Worldwide, 250 million people, or 3 percent of the global population, live outside their country of birth. Many of these migrants maintain strong ties with their home countries, sending part of their incomes to families back home. In 2015, migrants sent home $441 billion – almost three times the total value of official development assistance.
About 45 percent of these remittances flow from advanced economies to emerging market and developing economies. These funds have the potential to be an important mechanism for sharing income risks on a global scale. That is, if a family living in a developing country loses part of its income, higher remittances from relatives abroad could help compensate. (more…)