Need a new search?

If you didn't find what you were looking for, try a new search!

Emigration Slows Eastern Europe’s Catch Up With the West

By | July 20th, 2016|Advanced Economies, Economic research, Employment, euro zone, growth, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Migration, refugees, Uncategorized, unemployment|

By Nadeem Ilahi, Anna Ilyina, and Daria Zakharova
 
(Versions in: Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Hungarian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbian, and Slovenian)
 

The opening up of Eastern Europe to the rest of the world in the early 1990s brought about tremendous benefits. The inflow of capital and innovation has led to better institutions, better economic management, and higher efficiency. On the flip side, it has also led to sizable and persistent outflow of people.

Continue reading “Emigration Slows Eastern Europe’s Catch Up With the West” »

Martin Sommer

By | June 7th, 2016|

Martin Sommer-IMFMartin Sommer is the Deputy Chief in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. He is also the IMF mission chief for Qatar. He has worked on a wide range of issues and countries at the IMF since 2002, including global energy and commodity markets. Mr. Sommer, a national of the Czech Republic, graduated with a PhD in economics from the Johns Hopkins University.

 

Latest post:

 

 

Banking Union Before Euro Adoption: Flak Jacket or Straitjacket?

By | August 19th, 2015|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt|

By John Bluedorn, Anna Ilyina and Plamen Iossifov

All European Union members, except Denmark and the United Kingdom, are expected under EU treaties to eventually adopt the euro. Six Central and Eastern EU members – Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania – are yet to do so.

In the meantime, these countries have a decision to make: Should they opt in to the Banking Union before adopting the euro? Such a move may offer greater insurance against shocks, but at a certain cost to policy flexibility.  In a recent study, we explore some of the trade-offs that countries need to weigh.

Continue reading “Banking Union Before Euro Adoption: Flak Jacket or Straitjacket?” »

Disinflation in EU Countries outside the Eurozone

By | February 2nd, 2015|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics, Reform, Uncategorized|

By Plamen Iossifov and Jiri Podpiera

Inflation has been falling sharply across Europe since 2012 (see Charts 1 and 2). Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), inflation expectations have also drifted down especially among countries who peg their currencies to the euro (Bulgaria, Croatia, as well as Lithuania, which adopted the euro on January 1, 2015), but also in those that target their inflation rate (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania).

The recent drop in world oil prices has re-ignited the debate about good vs. bad disinflation. For the euro area, risks from low inflation have been discussed in the March 2014 iMFdirect post. Our blog examines the causes and potential consequences of falling inflation from the perspective of EU countries outside the euro zone.

Continue reading “Disinflation in EU Countries outside the Eurozone” »

Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

By | November 17th, 2014|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics, Reform, Uncategorized|

Min ZhuBy Min Zhu

(Versions in 中文Русский)

The world’s central bankers are certainly in the news these days. Not a week goes by without the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan taking big and often unprecedented actions to fight deflation, preserve financial stability, or address mediocre growth. We tend to forget, however, that these are not the only central banks that are struggling to adapt their policies to changing circumstances in our connected world.

Take the Caucasus and Central Asia — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Central banking in these former Soviet republics rarely makes international headlines. But figuring out how best to design and run monetary policy is no less a challenge than in the United States or the euro zone.

Continue reading “Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other” »

Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe: Safeguarding the Recovery as the Global Liquidity Tide Recedes

By | April 29th, 2014|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|

By Reza Moghadam, Aasim M. Husain, and Anna Ilyina

(Version in Türk)

Growth is gathering momentum in most of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the wake of the recovery in the euro area. Excluding the largest economies—Russia and Turkey—the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Issues report  projects the region to grow 2.3 percent in 2014, almost twice last year’s pace. This is certainly good news.

Figure 1

Continue reading “Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe: Safeguarding the Recovery as the Global Liquidity Tide Recedes” »

Jobs and Growth: Supporting the European Recovery

By | January 28th, 2014|Advanced Economies, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Uncategorized|

MD's Updated HeadshotBy Christine Lagarde

(Version in Français and Español)

As we begin the new year, Europe confronts both good and bad news. First the good news. Growth is finally picking up in the euro area as it is slowly emerging from the deep recession.  The bad news? Still nearly 20 million people are unemployed. Until the effects on employment have been reversed, we cannot say that the crisis is over.

Two trends are particularly troubling, now and for the future. First, the high level of long-term unemployment gives me great cause for concern: almost half of those without a job have been unemployed for more than a year. Second, I still worry about the large number of young people without jobs: nearly one quarter of Europeans under the age of 25 who are looking for a job cannot find one. In Italy and Portugal, more than one third of under-25s are unemployed, and in Spain and Greece more than one half are.

Continue reading “Jobs and Growth: Supporting the European Recovery” »

Bending with the Winds of International Capital Flows

By | September 30th, 2013|Advanced Economies, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt, Uncategorized|

John_SimonBy: John Simon

The winds may fell the massive oak, but bamboo, bent even to the ground, will spring upright after the passage of the storm.
Japanese Proverb

Capital flows to emerging market economies are a source of particular and enduring concern to many policymakers. As seen in the 1997-98 Asian crisis, surging inflows can fuel excessive credit growth, expanded current account deficits, appreciated exchange rates and a loss of competitiveness—followed by painful adjustment when the inflows reverse. Countries often fight these buffeting winds with tight controls on exchange rates, capital flow management and aggressive interest rate movements. While these sometimes work, and are sometimes the best response to a crisis, all too often countries can find themselves felled by the wind like the massive oak.

In the most recent World Economic Outlook we discuss an approach to dealing with volatile international capital flows that emphasizes the soft and flexible response to capital flows rather than the hard and oak-like. Instead of trying to resist foreign inflows, countries can bend. We find that the countries that proved to be more resilient to the turbulent gusts of international capital flows were not necessarily those that controlled the inflows, but those where foreign inflows were balanced by offsetting resident outflows.

Continue reading “Bending with the Winds of International Capital Flows” »

Robert Tchaidze

By | March 21st, 2013|

Robert TchaidzeRobert Tchaidze, a national of Georgia, joined the IMF in 2002. He is a Senior Economist in the European Department, where he has worked on the Czech Republic, Ireland, Denmark, Iceland, and most recently Turkey and Switzerland.  He held a teaching position at the International School of Economics in Tbilisi, Georgia while on a leave from the IMF from 2007 to 2009. He holds an MA in Mathematics from Tbilisi State University and a Ph.D. in Economics from the Johns Hopkins University. Latest Posts:

Lost & Found in Eastern Europe: Replacing Funding by Western Europe’s Banks

By | June 13th, 2012|Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund|

There is little doubt the era of generous funding from Western Europe's banks to their subsidiaries in the East is over, but this doens't have to translate into a reduction of bank credit in the emerging economies of Europe. The IMF's latest analysis shows an increase in local deposits in most countries of the region has offset the withdrawal of funding from Western Europe.

Load More Posts