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Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

2017-04-14T01:51:29-04:00November 17, 2014|

Min ZhuBy Min Zhu

(Versions in 中文Русский)

The world’s central bankers are certainly in the news these days. Not a week goes by without the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan taking big and often unprecedented actions to fight deflation, preserve financial stability, or address mediocre growth. We tend to forget, however, that these are not the only central banks that are struggling to adapt their policies to changing circumstances in our connected world.

Take the Caucasus and Central Asia — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Central banking in these former Soviet republics rarely makes international headlines. But figuring out how best to design and run monetary policy is no less a challenge than in the United States or the euro zone.

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What to Do About Unemployment in the Caucasus and Central Asia

2017-04-15T14:16:17-04:00October 31, 2011|

By Masood Ahmed

Judging by growth levels alone, the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia are doing well. The region’s recovery from the global financial crisis is gaining momentum, with the oil and gas exporters profiting from the high price of oil and the oil and gas importers benefiting from rising export demand and the continued recovery in Russia, which is translating into a steady increase in workers’ remittances.

 As elsewhere, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery could cloud the region’s growth outlook. Assuming, however, that these external risks do not materialize, we foresee good prospects for the region, with fairly robust growth over the coming year. We are projecting growth in both groups of countries in the range of about 5½ and 6½ percent in 2011 and 2012—as detailed in our latest Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia.  

 Looking beyond growth rates, however, one challenge that stands out for the region as a whole is to create jobs. (more…)

Seven Pillars of Prosperity—Diversifying Economic Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia

2017-04-15T14:24:32-04:00May 5, 2011|

By David Owen

(Version in Русский)

Medium-term economic growth prospects in the Caucasus and Central Asia region are strong. But, to secure ongoing prosperity, the eight countries of the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—will need to look beyond traditional sources of growth.

The challenge for policymakers will be to foster new and more diverse growth drivers, outside mining, oil, and gas.

There are seven policy pillars that can help them do that: (more…)

David Owen

2010-10-28T14:03:12-04:00October 28, 2010|

David Owen is Deputy Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, where he specializes in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Since joining the IMF in 1994, David has worked on a number of transition and emerging market countries, including heading teams on Azerbaijan, Brazil, Georgia, Moldova, and Russia. He also worked at the UK Treasury for 14 years before joining the IMF, where he focused on macroeconomic forecasting, research, and policy advice on the UK and other advanced economies.

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Unlocking Central Asia’s Huge Potential

2017-04-15T14:50:55-04:00October 16, 2009|

By Masood Ahmed

The IMF has just finished its Annual Meetings in Istanbul, the traditional start of the old silk road and the gateway to Central Asia. 

Strategically located between East Asia and Europe, and South Asia and Russia, Central Asia is rich in resources and faces tremendous opportunities—yet to be made the most of. Since the outset of their transition to a market economy, the countries of the region have made visible progress toward decentralizing their economies, creating market institutions, expanding international links, and intensifying efforts to diversify and increase production and trade. 

As a result—and owing also to sound macroeconomic management, high commodity prices, and strong foreign inflows—this landlocked region, the size of the European Union and home to 60 million people, enjoyed near double-digit growth on average during 2001–07. 

Oil wells in Baku, Azerbaijan: With global energy demand increasing again, Central Asia's energy exporters should see growth rates increase in 2010 (photo: David Mdzinarishvili /Reuters)

Oil wells in Baku, Azerbaijan: With global energy demand increasing again, Central Asia’s energy exporters should see growth rates increase in 2010 (photo: David Mdzinarishvili /Reuters)

But, as elsewhere in the world, the global economic crisis has taken a toll on Central Asia, with average growth for the region as a whole sinking from 5.7 percent in 2008 to 1.2 percent in 2009. Nevertheless, this average masks important differences across countries. 

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